News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • (Sentiment Weekly) Dow Jones, S&P 500 Outlook: Rising Long Bets, Bearish Technical Signs Worrying Recording of today's webinar also in the article below #DowJones #SP500 https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/special_report/2021/05/12/Dow-Jones-SP-500-Outlook-Rising-Long-Bets-Bearish-Technical-Signs-Worrying.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/3CEmvEwmnv
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/lLNE9eI4NT
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.10% Gold: -0.38% Silver: -0.81% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/D02uNrtXBx
  • RT @tracyalloway: Yields on the junkiest of junk bonds (CCC-rated) hit another all-time low, coming in at just 5.66%. https://t.co/qGi3ETjG…
  • RT @FxWestwater: Euro Technical Forecast: $EURUSD, $EURAUD, $EURJPY Charts to Watch Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/05/12/Euro-Technical-Forecast-EURUSD-EURNZD-EURAUD-Charts-to-Watch.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/fa6WSjjYpM
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.31% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/d3C8KTv536
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.21%, while traders in GBP/USD are at opposite extremes with 68.58%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/shh3jAwo7Z
  • 🇦🇺 Building Permits MoM Final (MAR) Actual: 17.4% Expected: 17.4% Previous: 20.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-12
  • Biden EPA expands fuel waivers to blunt gas shortages - BBG #OOTT $CL_F
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower. https://t.co/s3c3Mhvq6F
Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Probes Support, Can it Rally?

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Probes Support, Can it Rally?

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Australian Dollar Outlook:

  • Despite encouraging economic data and receding rate cut odds, AUD/USD slipped during January
  • Consequently, the pair has fallen to support offered by the descending band originating from December 2018
  • Wednesday’s FOMC rate decision could provide clarity on a major theme, allowing the pair to look to other concerns

Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Probes Support, can it Rally?

AUD/USD waded into support on Wednesday following a Federal Open Market Committee rate decision. Strong employment data, robust inflation readings and receding rate cut odds have worked to buoy AUD to some degree, but US Dollar strength has overwhelmed throughout January. Given the dovish-lean from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, the Australian Dollar could employ strong domestic data to recapture lost ground – if risk trends permit.

Coronavirus fears and quarterly results from some of the world’s largest tech companies have the potential to erode risk appetite in the days ahead, a theme that has helped to undermine AUD/USD repeatedly in January. Further still, US equity prices retreated into the close on Wednesday, threatening the prospect of a continuation lower as the week progresses. Nevertheless, the support near which AUD/USD currently resides has shown its ability to influence price in the past.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – January 2020)

AUDUSD price chart after fomc

Originating from December 2018, the descending band aligns with various swing highs over the last fourteen months. After breaking above with confidence in December 2019, AUD/USD has yet to revisit the level – until this week. While the initial break out suggested a possible shift in the pair’s longer-term trend, a break back beneath the level could see a return to the gradual downtrend and open the door to further losses.

With that in mind, subsequent support around 0.67 may provide a second opportunity for AUD/USD to rebound if the band fails to buoy price. However, given the positioning of retail traders, the secondary level may be required in the days to come as we typically view the data as a contrarian indicator. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES