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Silver (XAG) Price Forecast: Can Risk Aversion Fuel a Silver Rally?

Silver (XAG) Price Forecast: Can Risk Aversion Fuel a Silver Rally?

2020-01-28 18:00:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst
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Silver (XAG/USD) Price Outlook:

Silver (XAG) Price Forecast: Can Risk Aversion Fuel a Silver Rally?

Stocks slipped as gold and silver enjoyed a boost on Monday morning after coronavirus fears worked to undermine risk appetite. While risk-off sentiment was largely dominant, silver erased the entirety of its gains on Tuesday, helping to highlight the strength of resistance around $18.35. Therefore, further deterioration in risk appetite may be required for silver to surmount the area and continue higher as it now probes support around $17.50.

Silver Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (June 2019 – January 2020) (Chart 1)

silver price chart

Charted created with TradingView

Two weeks ago, I argued silver was likely headed lower in the shorter-term as it looks to consolidate before an eventual extension higher. Evidently, unforecastable themes have come into the fray and could look to cut the consolidation period short. Still, a daily close above $18.35 will be required before the resistance can be deemed broken. Should it break, the metal’s path higher will be relatively unobstructed, allowing XAG to probe secondary resistance around the September highs at roughly $19.50.

Silver BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 8% -7% 6%
Weekly 8% -11% 6%
What does it mean for price action?
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With upcoming earnings from Apple and a looming Fed rate decision, silver should enjoy plenty of potential catalysts in the week ahead. To that end, retail traders remain convinced Silver is headed higher – a fact we typically view as a bearish indicator, but one that works to complicate price prognostications in this instance. Nevertheless, traders should be wary of a break out in either direction - above $18.35 or below $17.50 - in the days to come as it could allow for further volatility.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Dow Jones, DAX 30 & FTSE 100 Technical Forecasts for the Week Ahead

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