News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇩 Balance of Trade (MAY) due at 04:00 GMT (15min) Expected: $2.3B Previous: $2.19B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/dObQjwTEpH
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/K8PLT8SVEb
  • We are within 48 hours of the FOMC rate decision and markets are clearly paying attention. The Dow is struggling while the SPX has edged a fresh record. Meanwhile, the Dollar is a deer in the headlines. I discuss what to expect for Tuesday trade: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/15/Dow-and-SP-500-Diverge-Ahead-of-FOMC-Dollar-Holds-as-Gold-and-Yields-Slide.html https://t.co/J0H5HirVh0
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/kZJKbmUZs7
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.26% Gold: -0.23% Silver: -0.73% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/0B7tF2adjQ
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: -0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.03% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.08% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.18% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/VeKOeAWOt9
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in EUR/CHF are long at 75.00%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 79.57%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/ZYFoi1huEb
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here: https://t.co/nAa0fHHGbZ https://t.co/y0zq7YdcRf
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 RBA Meeting Minutes due at 01:30 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-15
Australian Dollar (AUD) Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD Rebounds Stall

Australian Dollar (AUD) Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD Rebounds Stall

Peter Hanks, Strategist

Australian Dollar Outlook:

  • The Australian Dollar enjoyed a boost from strong jobs data and receding RBA rate cut odds
  • AUD/USD forfeited the entirety of Thursday’s gains as broader risk aversion took hold
  • Similarly, AUD/CAD tested the 200-day simple moving average before retracing beneath 0.90

Australian Dollar (AUD) Forecast: AUD/USD, AUD/CAD Rebounds Stall

Strong jobs data helped to reduce RBA rate cut odds on Thursday, but broader risk aversion – as evidenced by price action on indices like the Nasdaq 100 – worked to erode the gains initially enjoyed by the Australian Dollar. Last week I noted AUD weakness may persist in the medium term, although Thursday’s jobs report could look to shore up the currency’s standing somewhat. Still, various technical barriers exist overhead that may look to keep the Australian Dollar contained, despite the newfound cause for bullishness.

AUD/USD Outlook

In the case of AUD/USD, a long upper wick on the Thursday candle highlights the transition from AUD strength to weakness as risk appetite receded. Furthermore, the retracement saw the pair slip beneath the 200-day moving average around 0.6865 which coincides with horizontal resistance from the May 2019 swing low. Together, the two levels will look to rebuke further attempts higher. Should they fail, subsequent resistance likely resides at 0.69.

AUD/USD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (December 2018 – January 2020)

australian dollar, aud chart

On the other hand, prolonged risk aversion could pressure AUD/USD lower still. Beyond the 2016 low which will look to offer a modicum of support in the interim, subsequent support resides around the descending channel marked by the various highs from the last two years. As the Australian Dollar seeks direction, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis.

AUD/CAD Outlook

Not to be outdone, AUD/CAD also tested the 200-day simple moving average on Thursday before quickly retreating beneath 0.90. The brief extension higher illustrates the impact of the jobs data, but the pullback may suggest the data fell short of materially changing the market’s perception of the Australian Dollar. Either way, AUD/CAD will have to surpass the 200DMA if it is to continue higher in the coming days. Secondary resistance likely exists at 0.91.

AUD/CAD Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (April 2019 – January 2020)

australian dollar audcad price chart

Conversely, continued risk aversion and AUD/CAD bearishness could see the pair test support narrowly above 0.89. A break beneath this level would open the door to the October swing low at 0.8835 which would mark the “line in the sand” which, if broken, would allow the Australian Dollar to extend lower. While it is currently unclear whether risk aversion will continue, weakness in stocks and a precipitous decline in crude oil could suggest the theme has staying power.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 Outlook: Boeing, Netflix Drag on Stocks

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES