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British Pound (GBP) Latest: Brexit Defeats for Johnson in House of Lords

British Pound (GBP) Latest: Brexit Defeats for Johnson in House of Lords

2020-01-21 09:10:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • The probability of a cut in the benchmark UK Bank Rate on January 30 has risen to more than 64%.
  • UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been defeated three times on Brexit in the House of Lords but the decisions are expected to be reversed in the House of Commons.
  • Against this background, GBP/USD will likely continue to trade sideways near-term.

GBP/USD outlook: sideways trading expected to continue

GBP/USD traders have shrugged off three Brexit defeats for UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson in the House of Lords Monday and will likely ignore more that are expected this session. Johnson has a large majority in the House of Commons, which is expected to reverse the Lords’ votes.

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GBP/USD may therefore continue to trade near the 1.30 mark near-term even though the probability of a quarter-point cut in the benchmark UK Bank Rate to 0.5% on January 30 is now almost 65% and a reduction by early May is now fully priced in to the overnight index swaps market.

GBP/USD Price Chart, One-Hour Timeframe (January 17-21, 2020)

Latest GBP/USD price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

The yield on the two-year Gilt has fallen to its lowest level since October last year as rate-cut expectations have risen, even though the International Monetary Fund has predicted that the UK economy will grow faster than the Eurozone’s both this year and next year.

GBP/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% -15% -11%
Weekly 27% -34% -12%
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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

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