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Brexit Briefing: London Stocks at Risk From UK-EU Trade Talks

Brexit Briefing: London Stocks at Risk From UK-EU Trade Talks

2020-01-15 09:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor
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FTSE 100, FTSE 250, Brexit news and analysis:

  • With Brexit just over two weeks away, traders in London stocks are starting to worry about the negotiations on trade that will begin between the EU and the UK after January 31.
  • Any signs of disagreement would likely put downward pressure on UK equities.

FTSE 100, FTSE 250 could lag when tough UK-EU trade talks begin

Traders in London-listed stocks need to be careful after Brexit on January 31 as potentially difficult trade talks between the UK and the EU begin in earnest. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said the so-called transition period will not be extended beyond the year-end, leaving open the possibility of a no-deal Brexit on December 31.

Any suggestions, therefore, that the negotiations are in difficulty would likely increase the chances of a downturn in UK equities, which have traded broadly sideways so far this year.

FTSE 100 Price Chart, Two-Hour Timeframe (December 27, 2019 - January 15, 2020)

Latest FTSE 100 price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

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Any signs of disagreement in the trade talks between the UK and other countries, notably the US, could also dampen sentiment towards London stocks. However, note that the FTSE 100 index of leading London-listed stocks is composed of many companies – such as banks and miners – that operate internationally. There could therefore be a greater impact on the broader FTSE 250 index of medium-sized companies, which is more UK-oriented.

FTSE 250 Price Chart, Two-Hour Timeframe (December 27, 2019 - January 15, 2020)

Latest FTSE 250 price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

As the chart above shows, the FTSE 250 has already been lagging behind the FTSE 100 so far this year and it would likely be hit hard if there were hints that the trade talks are not going well, with many experts warning that a year is a very short timeframe to agree a deal. These negotiations often take several years to conclude and then need to be put into law.

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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