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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits 6-Week High, Overbought Signal Flashes

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Hits 6-Week High, Overbought Signal Flashes

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold Price Forecast, Technical Analysis and Charts:

  • XAU/USD price entering an old congestion zone.
  • CCI showing the gold market as heavily overbought.

Gold Price Analysis

Gold continues to float higher as traders look to de-risk as the holiday season starts. The fundamental backdrop for the precious metal is fairly neutral with Monday’s weaker-than-expected US durable goods release helping prop up the price, while a strong US dollar complex – boosted by year-end demand - keeps the lid on any further rally. The partial trade deal between the US and China should also weigh on prices, especially after China announced temporary cuts to a range of tariffs on US goods from the beginning of 2020. However, gold continues to move higher.

Gold Price Outlook: Looking to Push Higher After Recent Consolidation

The daily gold chart shows that the precious metal is back in a congested trading zone with an array of old highs and lows made over the last four months. The current price is supported by all three moving averages – with gold opening above the 20- and 50-dmas this week – while the downtrend off the September high has been broken this week. The series of lower highs remain in place until a break above the $1,51/oz. to 41,518/oz is broken convincingly.

One technical indicator – CCI – is warning that the market is looking toppy and is flashing its most overbought reading since early-mid August. With the market closing for the holiday season, it may be wise to wait until this reading drops, and turnover increases, before considering entering the market from the long side.

The DailyFX Q1 2020 Gold fundamental and technical outlooks will be released shortly on the DailyFX website to help guide traders in the first three months of next year.

Gold Price Chart (March -December 24, 2019)

Chart showing gold price moving higher

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.