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Gold Price Outlook: Looking to Push Higher After Recent Consolidation

Gold Price Outlook: Looking to Push Higher After Recent Consolidation

Nick Cawley, Strategist

Gold Price Forecast, Technical Analysis and Charts:

  • Gold a confusing mixture of lower highs and higher lows.
  • Year-end risk-off moves could boost supportive sentiment.

Gold Price Analysis:

The daily gold chart shows a medium-term downtrend being counter-balanced by a short-term uptrend, with a series of lower highs from the September 4 peak being countered by a series of higher lows from November 12. This is contracting gold’s trading spread and making a pennat formation, a technical set-up that normally precedes a sharp breakout. Current trading conditions are quiet ahead of the year-end, adding to the possibility of a sharp move.

The daily chart shows gold trading above the 200- and 50-day moving averages and either of the short-term 2-dma. A break and close above the latter would add a positive boost, leaving the recent $1,487/oz. high and a cluster of highs and lows either side of $1,500/oz. as the next upside targets.

A break below the supportive trend-line would also see gold below the 20- and 50-dmas and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, leaving $1,458/oz. as the next downside target. Below here, $1,450/oz. and $1,445/oz. come into view.

The US and China trade talks continue in a more positive fashion, dialing back risk, but the US is now likely to ramp up trade talks with the EU. US trade representative Robert Lighthizer said yesterday that the US may ramp up tariffs on the EU in 2020, blaming a ‘very unbalanced relationship’ between the two. Lighthizer added that the US trade deficit with the EU may hit $180 billion in 2019, a significant deficit according to Lighthizer.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

Gold Price Chart (March -December 18, 2019)

Gold price chart with technical indicators

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.