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Sterling (GBP) Analysis - GBP/USD Rally Continues on Latest Poll Boost

Sterling (GBP) Analysis - GBP/USD Rally Continues on Latest Poll Boost

2019-12-09 10:30:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst

Sterling Price (GBP) Analysis, Price and Charts

  • Latest Survation poll gives the Conservative Party a 14-point lead.
  • GBP/USD makes fresh multi-month high.

Q4 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

GBP/USD – Nearing a Complete Reversal of the March-September Sell-Off

The latest Survation poll of UK voting intentions published Monday shows the UK Conservative party extending its lead over Labour to nearly 14 percentage points, indicating a working majority in parliament for PM Boris Johnson. The Survation poll was the most accurate poll in the 2017 General Election.

This follows on from a weekend Opinium poll for the Observer newspaper that showed the Conservatives holding a 15-point lead. The Guardian newspaper’s poll of polls – an equally-weighted poll of polls over a moving 14-day period – shows the Conservative party with a 10-percentage point lead, ahead of Thursday’s General Election.

Sterling (GBP) Weekly Forecast: British Pound Driving Higher into General Election Week.

Sterling continues to price-in a Conservative government with a working majority and is testing levels against the US dollar last seen in early May. Above here the March high at 1.3382 comes into view, and a print here would see the 14 big figure sell-off seen between March and early-September completely re-traced. Sterling’s downside remains very limited unless the polls prove to be inaccurate and Johnson does not gain a working majority on Thursday.

The latest Commitment of Traders report shows non-commercial accounts reducing their GBP net-short positions as investors boost fresh net-long holdings of Sterling.

US Dollar Longs Extended, EUR/USD Sold Sharply, CAD Selling Reverses – COT Report.

The IG Client Sentiment indicator shows traders are 55% net-short GBP/USD, which normally would give us a bullish contrarian bias. However, recent daily and weekly changes currently give us a mixed outlook for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart (February – December 9, 2019)

GBP/USD Price Chart Showing Sterling Rallying Higher

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

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