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Pre-NFP Price Action Setups Across the US Dollar

Pre-NFP Price Action Setups Across the US Dollar

2019-12-05 19:48:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
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US Dollar Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar has continued to sell-off ahead of tomorrow’s NFP report.
  • Short-term oversold conditions are showing around the USD – might tomorrow’s jobs report help to provide a bounce up to lower-high resistance?
  • DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of markets such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euro and are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

USD Bears Continue to Push

The US Dollar has continued to sell-off in December and the three-month-low lurks just beneath current price action around the 97.11 level that came into play in early-November.

Tomorrow brings Non-Farm Payrolls so there will certainly be motive for USD trends. The big question is whether a short-term oversold scenario in the USD might allow for a deeper sell-off, or whether prices pose a pullback that could allow for re-entry into the bearish USD trend that’s started to play-out in Q4 of this year.

For pullback potential around tomorrow’s NFP report, the 97.70 level on DXY remains of interest, as this was the prior annual high set in November and December of last year, going along with 2019 resistance inflections in both March and June. This same price offered support in November and again on Tuesday but, to date, hasn’t been tested for resistance.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

EUR/USD Back Above 1.1100 but are Bulls Ready to Drive?

Longer-term resistance lurks in EUR/USD around 1.1187-1.1212 and this could be a constraint for bullish stances. But, on a shorter-term basis, buyers haven’t yet thrown in the towel, and if that pullback scenario plays out in USD tomorrow, a similar backdrop could develop around the EUR/USD. In the pair, the price of 1.1083 has been impactful but on a short-term basis hasn’t yet been tested for support after previously functioning as resistance.

EUR/USD Hourly Price Chart

eurusd eur/usd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

GBP/USD: Cable Goes Parabolic – How Aggressive Will Bulls Remain to Be?

On Tuesday the pair had already broken out to fresh six-month-highs and was catching a bit of resistance at a longer-term Fibonacci level around 1.3117. That resistance did not hold for long, however, as buyers have just continued to push. At this point, there’s little evidence to suggest that reversals are in-play and bullish continuation can be a challenge given the veracity of this recent move; so much so that a 1.3000 support test appears very far away and even if it does happen, something has likely shifted in the backdrop. This does, however, keep open the possibility of looking for support to play-in at that prior point of resistance around 1.3117 for aggressive topside strategies.

GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

USD/CAD Bears Are Back After BoC

Tomorrow brings Canadian jobs data out at the same 8:30 AM ET block that US jobs numbers will be released, thereby making for a potentially tumultuous backdrop in the pair; and over the past couple of days a workable trend has shown in the pair after the Bank of Canada rate decision yesterday.

While the pair had previously remained stubbornly strong even as USD was tanking in early-December, longer-term resistance lurking above combined with a less-dovish outlay from the BoC yesterday helped to bring sellers back into USD/CAD. The drawback at this point is nearby support and a potentially oversold short-term dynamic; opening the door for pullback potential to prior areas of support such as 1.3208-1.3222 or perhaps as deep as 1.3250-1.3262.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

USD/CHF Range Potential

USD/CHF has been in a range through the duration of Q4 and price action is sitting just atop range support, keeping the door open for bullish strategies.

USD/CHF Eight-Hour Price Chart

usdchf price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCHF on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

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--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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