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EUR/USD Price Ignores Better-Than-Expected Euro-Zone Inflation Data

EUR/USD Price Ignores Better-Than-Expected Euro-Zone Inflation Data

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

EUR/USD Price Forecast, Analysis and Chart:

  • Euro-Zone trumps expectations.
  • EUR/USD weakness still evident on the daily chart.

Brand New Q4 2019 USD and EUR Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Euro-Zone Inflation Ticks Higher

Euro-Zone inflation increased in November with the headline number printing at 1.0%, up from a prior 0.7%, while the core figure was released at 1.3%, up from 1.1% in October. The uptick was driven primarily by services prices, although, ex-fuel, prices were marginally higher across the board. While the move higher will please the ECB, inflation remains below the central bank’s target. However, if price pressures continue to pick-up, the hawks on the ECB monetary policy committee may start to become more vocal, leaving ECB President Lagarde looking at a growth/inflation balancing act in the months to come.

The single-currency barely moved on the inflation release and remains at 1.1000 against the US dollar. Markets are quiet with the US off yesterday and in, at best, for half-a-day today, while EURUSD volatility is at multi-months lows. Support levels remain unchanged at 1.09891 and 1.0926, ahead of the October 1 low at 1.0879. The spot price remains under all three moving averages, highlighting the pairs ongoing weakness, and if the price breaks lower next week on any of the important US data releases, all three support levels may fall.

There are a cluster of previous highs, along with the 20- and 50-dmas, blocking the upside back to 1.1100 and the pair will need a strong stimulus to test this level.

For all the major economic data releases and the updated events schedule, see the DailyFX Economic Calendar.

The IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 57% net-long EUR/USD, giving us a bearish contrarian bias.

EUR/USD Daily Price Chart (March - November 29, 2019)

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.