News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/bpKdIqGxsn
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/jmcAIW4w5k
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/M9isuvnzqF
  • The British Pound is giving back some of its multi-month gains with some pairs testing notable support despite a positive fundamental backdrop. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/6Ct5R0H41F https://t.co/c4rXmMjMrv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/4dhCP5pnxM
  • Gold is facing the neckline of a Double Bottom Pattern after bouncing off a confirmed longer-term trendline. Is a bullish reversal in order? Get your market update from @FxWestwater here: https://t.co/kLXZewWBMd https://t.co/w1Nu0z569m
  • Central banks often deem it necessary to intervene in the foreign exchange market to protect the value of their national currency. Learn how central bank intervention can impact your trading here: https://t.co/8G8mUX4so6 https://t.co/Gn41XsGktg
  • Rollover is the interest paid or earned for holding a currency spot position overnight. Learn how to earn rollover interest on your open positions here: https://t.co/SRsG8CxjEn https://t.co/2AR1qgx0tz
  • The New Zealand Dollar is in a tricky spot. On one hand, rising stocks can propel NZD. On the other, a dovish RBNZ ahead could cool bond yields as the government tackles soaring housing costs. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/5rjm2gr3EL https://t.co/aLwhWHMPqz
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/obH0RFLKhC
Canadian Dollar Firms Modestly as GDP Beats, but Still Decelerates

Canadian Dollar Firms Modestly as GDP Beats, but Still Decelerates

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Canada GDP Report Review:

  • Two Canadian growth figures this morning beat expectations, even if there was still notable deceleration in growth conditions: September Canada GDP was up by 1.6% and Q3’19 Canada GDP (annualized) was 1.6%.
  • The Bank of Canada has seen interest rate cut expectations pull forward in recent weeks.
  • According to the IG Client Sentiment Index, traders still shorting USD/CAD, yielding a mixed bias in the near-term.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the Canadian Dollar? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

The Bank of Canada’s October policy meeting caught market participants by surprise with warnings that the US-China trade war was having an increasingly negative impact on global growth. It seems that BOC policymakers ‘knew something,’ as the latest batch of Canadian growth figures showcases a dramatically slower growth environment compared to prior periods.

According to Statistics Canada, the latest batch of growth figures for the world’s 11th largest economy showed that there was a meaningful drop off in Q3’19, and low growth conditions persist. The year-over-year reading, running through September 2019, showed Canadian growth around 1.6%, better than the 1.4% rate anticipated. But the annualized Q3’19 Canada GDP figure plunged from 3.5% to 1.3%, underscoring BOC policymakers’ concerns at their meeting in October.

As it were, following the GDP data, BOC interest rate odds remained unfazed. Prior to the October BOC meeting, there were no interest rate moves discounted through October 2020. However, over the past month, including after today’s data, rates markets have now moved to price-in the next BOC rate cut as soon as April 2020.

Here are the data driving the Canadian Dollar this morning:

- CAD Gross Domestic Product (SEP): 0.1% as expected, unch. (m/m)

- CAD Gross Domestic Product (SEP): 1.6% versus 1.4% expected, from 1.5% (y/y)

- CAD Gross Domestic Product (3Q): 1.3% as expected, from 3.5% (annualized)

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Friday, November 29, 2019.

USD/CAD Rate Technical Analysis: 1-minute Chart (November 29, 2019 Intraday) (Chart 1)

usd/cad rate, usd/cad technical analysis, usd/cad chart, usd/cad rate forecast, usd/cad rate chart

Following the GDP report, the Canadian Dollar was able to scrape together modest gains, although price action was extremely limited – not entirely a surprise, given the low volume, low participation environment that typically marks the day after US Thanksgiving holiday. USD/CAD rates were trading near 1.3304 ahead of the Canada GDP report, fell as low as 1.3294, and were trading at 1.3300 at the time this report was written.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USD/CAD Rate Forecast (NOVEMBER 29, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs usd/cad, usd/cad rate chart, usd/cad rate forecast, usd/cad technical analysis

USD/CAD: Retail trader data shows 30.13% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.32 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.79% lower than yesterday and 23.30% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.17% lower than yesterday and 2.00% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is more net-short than yesterday but less net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES