Gold Price Forecast - Looking to Re-Test Three-Month Low
Gold Price Forecast, Technical Analysis and Charts:
- Technical pressure weighs on gold.
- China said to be looking at increasing penalties on IP theft.
Brand New Q4 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities
Gold Price Fundamental and Technical Outlook
Risk assets are once again in demand with investors taking a small amount of cheer from news that China is looking at cracking down on IP theft, one of the key demands of US President Trump in the ongoing US-China trade war. A recently published article in the South China Morning Post said that China is planning to reduce IP violations by 2022 and plans to make it easier for victims of IP theft to receive compensation. The market has taken this as a positive step in breaking the near 18-month old trade war between the two superpowers, although many false dawns have been seen before in this long-running dispute.
Gold has moved lower on the latest risk-on shift and is eyeing a move back to the November 12 low at $1,445/oz. Spot gold is trading at $1,459.5/oz. just four dollars below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level that prompted a short-term recovery the last time it was broken. To the downside a cluster of old highs/lows either side of the $1,440/oz. should provide support before the 200-day moving averge at $1,417/oz. and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,405/oz.
Bulls may struggle to push the price higher with the previously mentioned 23.6% fib level guarding the 20-dma at $1,472/oz. and the two-week high at $1,479/oz. Above here the 50-dma at $1,486/oz. While the overall picture looks negative, it may take some time for gold to make the next move lower.
Gold Price Chart (April – November 25, 2019)
IG Client Sentiment shows that how traders are positioned in a wide range of assets and markets. Retail customers are 76% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian bias. However daily and weekly sentiment shifts give us a mixed outlook.