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Brexit Briefing: Scottish Independence Climbs the Election Agenda

Brexit Briefing: Scottish Independence Climbs the Election Agenda

2019-11-21 09:00:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst
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GBP price, Brexit news and analysis:

  • The issue of independence for Scotland has become a major factor in the UK General Election campaign this week as the Scottish National Party presses for a second independence referendum.
  • GBP/USD continues to meander sideways ahead of the publication of the Labour Party election manifesto this session.

GBP/USD range-trading amid calls for second Scottish independence vote

The Scottish National Party is continuing to press for a second referendum on independence for Scotland as UK General Election polls continue to point to a victory for the ruling Conservative Party.

In the event that the Conservatives fail to win an overall majority in the December 12 election, the SNP has made clear that a second independence vote will be a condition for helping the main Opposition Labour Party form a government. Labour has ruled out such a deal but the SNP – if it were to become the kingmaker post-election – could still support Labour without a formal agreement.

For now, GBP/USD traders are ignoring the possibility of a potential break-up of the UK. However, the currency pair would likely suffer long-term given that Scottish independence would likely cause even more problems than the Brexit referendum.

For now, GBP/USD continues to trade well below the key 1.30 resistance level in a relatively tight range.

GBP/USD Price Chart, 30-Minute Timeframe (November 18-21, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD price chart

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Brexit Glossary - Brexit Jargon and Terms Explained

This session, the key event will be the publication of Labour’s election manifesto, which has been described by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn as “radical and ambitious”. This is unlikely to affect GBP/USD or EUR/GBP near-term, with traders’ focus likely to be on pre-election opinion polls.

Brexit Timeline – The Path Ahead

We look at Sterling regularly in the DailyFX Trading Global Markets Decoded podcasts that you can find here on Apple or wherever you go for your podcasts

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--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at martin.essex@ig.com or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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