MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP/USD Boosted by Election Poll, JPY Jumps on Trade War Latest
DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts
GBP: Weekend polls continuing to move in favour of the Conservative party has seen the Pound open on a firmer footing to begin the week. According to the latest Politco poll of polls the Conservative party is average 41% (2ppts shy of its peak in the run up to the 2017 election), while the Labour party are at 29%. Consequently, a Conservative majority is becoming increasingly likely with bookmakers pricing in such an outcome at 63%. However, while GBP/USD has pushed higher, 1.3000 remains the stumbling block for the pair and thus gains are somewhat limit in the run up to the election.
JPY: Risk sentiment swings as the mood music surrounding US-China trade deal hopes begins to fade yet again. Reports from CNBC that China are pessimistic on a trade deal after President Trump recently stated that he would not offer a tariff rollback (full tweet) has subsequently led to a pullback in equity markets, while safe-haven flows have pushed gold and JPY higher. USD/JPY back below its 200DMA (108.99) and as such eyes a test of support at 108.40 (rising trendline).
Source: DailyFX, Refinitiv
Economic Calendar (15/11/19)
Source: DailyFX,
WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
- “US Dollar Selling Reverses, AUD/USD Shorts Surge, CAD Selling Begins - COT Report” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “DAX Weekly Forecast Look Ahead: Awaiting Signal from EU Auto-Tariffs” by Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst
- “Sterling Forecast: GBP Rally Stoked by Latest General Election Polls” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com
Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
