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Euro Outlook Dour Even as Germany Narrowly Avoids Recession

Euro Outlook Dour Even as Germany Narrowly Avoids Recession

2019-11-14 07:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist


  • Euro gains uninspired as Germany narrowly avoids a technical recession
  • Soggy inflation, weak growth, geopolitics likely to make for a dovish ECB
  • Breach of near-term chart support sets the stage to test below 1.09 figure

Where will markets end 2019? See our Q4 forecasts for currencies, commodities and stock indexes!

The Euro popped higher as third-quarter German GDP data showed the currency bloc’s largest economy unexpectedly avoided a technical recession. Output grew 0.1 percent in the three months to September. It was expected to fall by the same amount, which would have marked two consecutive quarters in the red following the 0.2 percent drop in the prior period.

The move higher was conspicuously lackluster. The bellwether EUR/USD exchange rate poked back above the 1.10 figure but seems to be struggling for follow-through. In fact, the move is barely challenging the bounds of even the very near-term downtrend traced out since the beginning of the week. That probably reflects the outcome’s limited implications for ECB monetary policy.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - 15min

15min EURUSD chart created with TradingView


The central bank topped up an already ultra-accommodative policy stance featuring negative lending rates and TLTRO bank liquidity injections with an open-ended QE effort earlier in the year. Incoming economic data has chronically undershot baseline forecasts for two years, priced-in inflation expectations have been sinking since early 2018 and geopolitics – from trade tensions with the US to Brexit – are not helpful.

On balance, that means the newly-installed ECB President Christine Lagarde and company are unlikely to sing anything but a dovish tune for the time being, German growth notwithstanding. The markets are not pricing in another interest rate cut until late 2020, but that may well be revised to the Euro’s detriment as Eurozone financial conditions approach the tightest in two years despite generous stimulus.


Sizing up overall positioning, prices are testing support in the 1.0968-90 area after seemingly resume the dominant downtrend with a break below a counter-trend line establishing the upswing from October’s swing low. A daily close below that exposes that very bottom at 1.0879. Near-term resistance is in the 1.1069-76 zone, followed by the double top just below the 1.12 figure.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Daily EURUSD chart created with TradingView


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

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