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USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

2019-11-12 13:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist

The Japanese Yen has been range-bound versus several currencies, but that looks set to change as certain thresholds are nearing breaking point. The big one, USD/JPY, is nearing the apex of a wedge formation after having triggered an inverse head-and-shoulders (H&S) pattern. The wedge is the focal point now despite the bullish H&S trigger.

A break up will have trend-lines in play quickly and make for some sticky trading, but nevertheless if that is the way momentum resolves then we will need to either play with what we have or stand aside. A break to the downside will require a breach of the August trend-line, but could be the more explosive move as the chart has generally been leaning lower for nearly three years.

USD/JPY Daily Chart (waiting on break)

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

USD/JPY Chart by TradingView

GBP/JPY continues to coil up within the confines of a symmetrical wedge. The forming of this pattern after the powerful rally in October suggests we could see a continuation to the upside. But it can’t be ruled out that a downside breakout takes shape. Need to be wary of the initial breakout as it could be the a false one. Some patience may be required here, but a move certainly looks to be nearing as the contraction in volatility is set to expand.

GBP/JPY Daily Chart (symmetrical triangle)

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

GBP/JPY Chart by TradingView

EUR/JPY is working on breaking down out of a range under development since the middle of last month. The 12000 line, the high from September, is the key level of support to watch here. A close below should open up a path towards the trend-line (lower parallel) off the September low.

EUR/JPY Daily Chart (watch 12000)

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

EUR/JPY Chart by TradingView

AUD/JPY coming off the December trend-line/200-day combo, and with the near-term upward trend structure under fire it might not be long before we see a sustained move lower. Price is outside of the upward channel, but to help confirm a move lower a break below 74.56 will help put in a lower-low. If this develops, the targeted line of support will be the trend-line off the August low.

AUD/JPY Daily Chart (pulling off confluent resistance)

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

AUD/JPY Chart by TradingView

AUD/JPY 4-hr Chart (watch 74.56 swing-low)

USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUDJPY: Japanese Yen Trading Outlook

AUD/JPY Chart by TradingView

For the full set of technical details and charts, check out the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

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