Gold Price Remains Weak But May be Oversold - Technical Analysis
Gold Price Forecast, Technical Analysis and Charts:
- Gold stabilizes after heavy sell-off.
- CCI indicator flashes an oversold signal.
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Gold Price Fundamental Outlook
Gold is struggling to hold onto to $1,450/oz. and may seek to test the next levels of support around $40/oz. lower in the short-term. The sell-off has been accompanied by heavy trading volume over the last week using CME data. Last week’s CoT data also showed that active traders pared back their long positions further.
Gold Price Analysis
Financial markets are neither risk-on or risk-off at the moment which makes the sharp sell-off in gold difficult to explain when one of its main drivers remains flat. The strength of the US dollar has abated marginally over the last couple of days, which traditional would have prompted a small bid for gold. US President Donald Trump is giving a speech today at the Economic Club of New York and he may well update the market on the current state of US-China trade talks, the primary driver of risk events in the market.
A look at the daily gold price chart shows that the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,463.5 was broken with ease at the end of last week and will now act as primary resistance to any rebound. Below here, $1,437.5/oz. may offer limited support before the 200-day moving average and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,408.5/oz. and $1,405.5/oz. respectively come into view.
The CCI indicator is showing that gold is heavily oversold at the moment and starting to move higher. This may give the precious metal a level of short-term support.
Gold Price Chart (April – November 12, 2019)
IG Client Sentiment shows that how traders are positioned in a wide range of assets and markets. Retail customers are 77% net-long gold, a bearish contrarian bias.
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