We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Equity Close: $SPX -1.04% $DJI -1.51% $NDX -0.73% $RUT -2.13% $VIX +1.45
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.03% US 500: 0.01% FTSE 100: -0.56% France 40: -0.66% Germany 30: -0.71% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/gb7gWnUiHq
  • Trader sentiment remains broadly positive despite rising #coronavirus cases in the US and Australia. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/FB7yx2fsnL https://t.co/vxo9vub9BL
  • Major FX Pairs: Bullish or Bearish as USD Sets Up Camp on the Range https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2020/07/07/Major-FX-Pairs-Bullish-or-Bearish-as-USD-Setups-up-JS-Camp-on-the-Range.html https://t.co/63hUap7rVW
  • The #Nasdaq 100 pressed to new heights yet again this week as it followed Asian equities higher. Get your equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Y5PbSsTgbB https://t.co/OOUmo7hDRN
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.68% Silver: 0.12% Oil - US Crude: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3VeJN5wSzB
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1Buvq1BIiL
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.01% FTSE 100: -0.00% France 40: -0.01% US 500: -0.24% Wall Street: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/A9KnXteeI4
  • $USDMXN: From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch toward the upper parallel. Get your USD/MXN technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/qHFiOObN9W https://t.co/TATFWDkLxS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Barkin Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
Stock Market Outlook: Record ETF Flows Highlight Robust Risk Appetite

Stock Market Outlook: Record ETF Flows Highlight Robust Risk Appetite

2019-11-11 22:57:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst

Stock Market Outlook:

  • TLT is an exchange traded fund that seeks to offer a return similar to that of a Treasury Bond with a maturity of more than 20 years
  • Record-setting outflows from the defensive fund suggest some investors are confident in the stock market
  • Still, with stocks trading at all-time highs, traders should monitor their exposure carefully

Stock Market Outlook: Record ETF Flows Highlight Robust Risk Appetite

Bullish equity traders were offered another encouraging sign this week as the defensive TLT ETF registered -$1.2 billion in outflows last week according to data from Bloomberg. While the intraday changes were notable in their own right, the consecutive outflows combined for the fund’s largest weekly loss of funds on record. The abrupt rotation out of TLT suggests investors harbor concerns on the fund’s outlook – a sign bond traders may have changed their tone on the recent equity rally.

S&P 500 Index Price Chart and TLT US Treasuries ETF Fund Flows

Data source: Bloomberg

To be sure, recent Treasury yield price trends have offered a similar view. Resting at just 1.43 at the start of December, the 10-year Treasury yield trades around 1.94 in mid-November, suggesting investor’s outlook for the future has improved. With the Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 trading at record highs and the bond market showing signs of recovery, it appears risk appetite has had a marked improvement since just months ago when yield curve inversions were rampant and stocks were rangebound and highly volatile.

Chart of S&P 500 Index Sentiment

Further, IG Client Sentiment data suggests retail traders have been largely absent from the recent rally, with short exposure continuing higher alongside the S&P 500. Retail trader data shows 19.37% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 4.16 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 12.89% lower than Friday and 9.79% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.63% lower than Friday and 6.12% lower from last week. Since we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, the fact traders are net-short the S&P 500 suggests the index may continue to rise.

Despite the bond market’s commentary and current stock valuations, traders should be acutely aware of their risk exposure. Weeks of muted volatility and depressed volume could have allowed investors to become complacent, and the aggressive rotation out of defensive funds like TLT could exacerbate risk aversion when equities inevitably encounter turbulence. While stocks look to continue their rally higher, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for further updates and analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Dow Jones, DAX 30 & FTSE 100 Fundamental Forecasts

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.