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Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Muted on Rocky Start to UK Election Campaign

Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Muted on Rocky Start to UK Election Campaign

2019-11-07 09:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
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UK Election Analysis and Talking Points

  • UK Election Campaign Gets Off to a Rocky Start
  • Betting Markets Sees Risk of Hung Parliament

BREXIT TIMELINE

UK Election Campaign Gets Off to a Rocky Start

Yesterday saw parliament dissolved, which in turn, officially marked the beginning of the general election campaign. However, it is fair to say that the main parties have had a stumbling start to their respective campaigns. The Tories were found to have doctored a video that portrayed a senior labour representative failing to answer the topic of Brexit, while Jacob Rees Mogg had made some insensitive comments over Grenfell. As such, these gaffes are likely to be utilised by the Labour party throughout their campaign. Although, it hasn’t exactly been plain sailing for the Labour party after the Deputy Leader Watson announced his resignation from the party.

Going forward, eyes will be on the trend of the opinion polls in the run up to the election and whether the Labour party will be closing the sizeable gap with the Conservatives, which if indeed this is the case, this would raise the prospect of a hung parliament.

UK Voting Intentions

Brexit Briefing: GBP/USD Muted on Rocky Start to UK Election Campaign

Betting Markets Sees Risk of Hung Parliament

Outcome

Likelihood

Tory Majority

41.5%

Labour Majority

6.25%

Hung Parliament

50%

Source: Derived from Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, William Hill & Betway Odds

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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