News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Notice

BoE Chief Econimist (Hawk) is to Step Down From BoE After June Meeting

Real Time News
  • - Supply shortages could limit GDP upside - Expecting consumer-price pressures this year - Long-term disinflationary forces should modulate prices
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.27% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.20% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.15% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.00% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/SOlcl3sqbU
  • Fed's Barkin: - Hopeful that US is on brink of completing recovery - Expecting "really strong" spring and summer - Real-time indicators suggests US is "in midst of boom" #Fed $USD
  • Fed's Harker: - No reason to withdraw support yet, recovery remains in early stages - Good reason to expect recovery in 2021 - US GDP should grow 5-6% this year - Expecting unemployment rate to continue to decline #Fed $USD
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.25% US 500: 0.11% FTSE 100: -0.07% Germany 30: -0.08% Wall Street: -0.38% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/az0ACroYJd
  • Hey traders! Get your Tuesday market update on what event risks we are witnessing - Chinese trade figures, UK data & US CPI from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/cj5gu1zwKT
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Harker Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Daly Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed George Speech due at 16:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-04-13
  • EU Commission plans to issue first Next Gen EU bonds by June. $EUR
US Dollar May Fall vs ASEAN FX on Singapore, China, India PMIs

US Dollar May Fall vs ASEAN FX on Singapore, China, India PMIs

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, US-China Trade War, ASEAN Data - Talking Points

  • US Dollar may keep weakening versus ASEAN FX on US-China trade deal hopes
  • Need for agreement underpinned by Singapore, Indonesia, China and India data
  • ASEAN-based USD index broke under key rising support. Are June lows ahead?

Trade all the major global economic data live as it populates in the economic calendar and follow the live coverage for key events listed in the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

US Dollar Weakening Versus SGD, MYR, IDR, PHP, INR

The US Dollar has lost some ground against ASEAN currencies as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 12.75 percent from the August low. Its decline against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Indian Rupee has occurred amid rising hopes of a US-China trade deal. Three interest rate cuts from the Fed have also delivered an easing in global easing credit conditions.

The importance of a resolution between the world’s largest economies is key for the Asia Pacific region. Hopes of a deal may continue denting the Dollar. Otherwise, risk of capital flight could turn things around. This is as economic data has been deteriorating alongside a slowdown in global growth. Last month, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook on the world economy, citing trade wars as a key risk.

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to see what is in store for these currencies ahead!

Asia, ASEAN Data Underscore Need for a US-China Trade Deal

The latter is a particular risk given the slew of data delivered on Tuesday. Markit Singapore PMI – whole economy - clocked in at 47.4 in October from 48.3 in August. A reading under 50 indicates a contraction in output. That was the worst outcome since August 2012 and a third consecutive month of declines. Disinflation has also been hitting the Philippines, with CPI just clocking in at 0.8% y/y in October.

While that was as expected, it was still the slowest pace of price growth since April 2016 and may continue fueling BSP rate cut bets. Shortly afterwards, Caixin services PMI data printed at 51.1, as expected. This was down from 51.3 in August and failed to achieve a noticeably better outcome in similar private sector manufacturing readings last week.

After the government downgraded 2019 growth estimates to 5.1% from 5.3% prior, Indonesia GDP clocked in at 5.02 percent y/y in the third quarter. This was slightly higher than the 5.00% estimate, but still the weakest since Q2 2017. Meanwhile, Markit Indian composite PMI printed 49.6 in October versus 49.8. The synchronized slowdown in PMI from China, India and Singapore are highlighted below.

US Dollar May Fall vs ASEAN FX on Singapore, China, India PMIs

US Dollar Technical Analysis

Using an average against the SGD, MYR, IDR and PHP, the US Dollar is in aggregate sitting at its weakest against these currencies since late July. The Dollar recently broke under rising support from March, opening the door to testing lows from June. Near-term resistance is at 4.0204 which is the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement. A daily close above this level could put USD strength back on the table.

To read more about where ASEAN currencies could go, check out my latest coverage of USD/PHP + USD/MYR, and USD/SGD + USD/IDR technical analysis

ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index

US Dollar May Fall vs ASEAN FX on Singapore, China, India PMIs

ASEAN-Based USD Index Chart Created in TradingView

US Dollar Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES