News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @KyleR_IG: With the @RBAInfo meeting minutes today, I had a look at a few $AUD/USD correlations. It's clearly been a commodity price an…
  • The US Dollar is looking increasingly vulnerable to ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/THB breaching key support. USD/IDR is eyeing a Rising Wedge, USD/PHP may face February lows. Get your $USD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/7rSQztIR8z https://t.co/PUNeByV2Ls
  • EUR/USD rocketed higher during early trade, reclaiming the 1.20 handle $EURUSD https://t.co/G04a5892IB
  • @ddubrovskyFX 'The Four Candle Phenom'
  • AUD/USD appears to be on track to negate the head-and-shoulders formation from earlier this year as it clears the opening range for April. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/kG7JGNLyve https://t.co/XB5eu2zH53
  • @JohnKicklighter One Bear Pennant coming right up! https://t.co/RVTxa123bH
  • Anyone doing any good technical analysis on $COIN yet?
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.08% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.60% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.50% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.46% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.32% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.20% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/hSubj68ZHD
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.08% Gold: -0.32% Silver: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/BJga7KvgMr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.55%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 80.61%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/uK7z1OwAvN
US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Analyst

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – US Dollar Rises on GDP, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

USD: The US Dollar is on the front foot following the better than expected Q3 growth figures of 1.9%, which highlighted that consumer spending had yet gain kept US growth relatively robust. Elsewhere, the ADP employment report was mixed with the headline beat offset by the weak revision, however, while the ADP report does continue to highlight that jobs growth is slowing.

US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

Looking ahead, the key focus is the FOMC rate decision, although given that a rate cut is a foregone conclusion (95% priced in), much of the attention will be placed towards the statement alongside the press conference. Signals from Chair Powell that the Fed may look towards providing an interim break to further rate cuts could see the US Dollar higher with equity markets on the backfoot.

Fed Commentary Highlight Divide on Monetary Policy Path

US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

ZAR: The South African Rand is on course for its largest drop this year after the Treasury projected that the budget deficit will rise to a two-decade high of 5.9% of GDP, notably higher than the prior projection in February of a 4.2% deficit. Consequently, the Finance Minster stated that the risk of a sovereign credit rating downgrade had increased since February’s budget. As a reminder, Moody’s are due to announce their latest update on South Africa’s sovereign debt on Friday. They are the last rating agency to have SA sovereign credit in investment, thus a decision to downgrade would see SA fall into junk status, to which the IMF have estimated that could lead to ZAR 20bln worth of outflows.

That said, instead of downgrading the debt, Moody’s could potentially opt for lowering their outlook from stable to negative (current status is Baa3, outlook stable).

CAD: Expectations are for the BoC to stick with its neutral bias and signal that current degree of monetary policy stimulus remains appropriate, given that Canadian data has held up as of late. Consequently, while option pricing shows that overnight implied volatility has more than doubled to account for BoC and Fed risk, the implied move a relatively tame 60pips, in which we see the latter risk as the more important in providing volatility.

US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market OpenUS Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX, Refinitiv

Economic Calendar (30/10/19)

US Dollar Rises Ahead of Fed, South African Rand Crashes, CAD Eyes BoC - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX,

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Volatility Soars on BoC and Fed Risk” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  2. EUR/USD Price Eyes 1.1200 as US Dollar Braces for FED Rate Decision” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
  3. Brexit Latest: Sterling (GBP) Untroubled by General Election Fears, FOMC Ahead” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES