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EUR/USD Forecast - Price Action Continues to Press Lower

EUR/USD Forecast - Price Action Continues to Press Lower

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EUR/USD Price, News and Analysis:

  • Q4 survey shows continued Eurozone weakness.
  • EUR/USD remains capped with only USD weakness a threat to resistance.

Brand New Q4 2019 USD and EUR Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

EUR/USD Remains Biased Towards the Downside After Weak ECB Survey

The latest ECB Survey of Professionals Forecasters report points towards further weakness in the area with inflation and growth expectations lowered further while unemployment is seen rising through to the end of 2021. The quarterly report shows inflation expectations lowered by an average 0.1% to 1.2% (2019), 1.2% (2020) and 1.4% (2021), leaving price pressures lagging the central bank’s mandate of ‘at below, but close to 2%’. The growth outlook for the single-block is also weak with downward revisions of 0.1% for both 2019 (1.1%) and 2021 (1.3%) while next year’s projection arse cut by 0.3% to just 1% annual growth. The unemployment rate for 2019 is left unchanged at 7.6% and is revised up by 0.1% to 7.5% and 7.4% for 2020 and 2021. It is now likely that the closely followed ECB staff projections released in December will also be revised to reflect the ongoing weakness in the Eurozone.

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Next week’s economic calendar contains a raft of high importance Eurozone economic data, including German unemployment and CPI, Eurozone CPI, unemployment and GDP and Q3 provisional Italian GDP.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

EUR/USD remains under pressure with further downside favored. The 200-day moving average currently caps the upside at 1.1175 although a break and a close above here opens the way to 1.1249, the August 6 lower high. To the downside, big figure support at 1.1100 before 1.0926, the double lows seen in early/mid-September come into play.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (February – October 25, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 57% net-short EURUSD, a bullish contrarian bias.

Recent daily and weekly positional changes confirm this bullish bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.