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EUR/USD Price: Short-Term Rally May Run Into Resistance

EUR/USD Price: Short-Term Rally May Run Into Resistance

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

EUR/USD Price, Chart and Outlook

  • EUR/USD rallies off the 50-day moving average.
  • Any Brexit-boost may see the pair test near-term resistance.

Brand New Q4 2019 USD and EUR Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

EUR/USD: 50-Day Moving Average - Resistance Turning to Support

The daily EUR/USD chart is showing a few conflicting signals of late, leaving a decisive break unlikely in the near-term. While the rally off the October 1 multi-month low at 1.0879 looks well supported, the pair are starting to run into resistance which should stem further upside. The pair however are benefitting from one technical indicator which may well limit any notable downside.

EUR/USD made a confirmed break above the 50-day moving average (blue line on chart) at the start of this week, for the first time since mid-July. The 50-dma has capped the pair for most of the year, while the 200-dma has acted as even firmer resistance aside from a breakout between June 21 and July 1. The 50-dma now turns to support for EUR/USD, while the 200-dma is the next important upside target.

The recent rally has broken a series of lower highs, confirming the shift in momentum, and a close above the 1.1250 lower high made on August 6 would change the medium-term outlook for the Euro to positive. A cautionary signal from the CCI indicator which shows that EUR/USD is currently heavily overbought.

Looking ahead the economic calendar has some important data releases next week including Eurozone consumer confidence, German and Eurozone PMIs and German IFO numbers. Of more importance will be the latest ECB monetary policy meeting and press conference on Thursday – President Mario Draghi’s last meeting – and the EU Commission Economic Forecasts on Friday, both notable market moving events. Resistance and support levels may come under pressure from any of the events noted above.

DailyFX Economic Calendar

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (January – October 18, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 51% net-short EURUSD, a bullish contrarian bias.

However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed outlook for EUR/USD.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the Euro and the US Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.