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Australian Dollar Firm After China GDP Miss But Trend Aims Lower

Australian Dollar Firm After China GDP Miss But Trend Aims Lower

2019-10-18 02:27:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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CHINA, GDP, TRADE WAR, AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - TALKING POINTS:

  • 3Q Chinese GDP registers narrowly worse than expected at 6.0% y/y
  • Industrial production data, US trade talks may have offset the headline
  • Australian Dollar little-changed but overall trend still pointing lower

Where will markets end 2019? See our Q4 forecasts for currencies, commodities and stock indexes!

The Australian Dollar found little of interest in mildly disappointing Chinese GDP data. The figures put the on-year growth rate at 6 percent, a hair lower than the 6.1 percent expected by economists. Nevertheless, this marks the slowest pace of expansion in at least 27 years.

Upbeat industrial production readings might have helped offset a soggy headline figure. The rate of on-year growth unexpectedly jumped to a three-month high of 5.8 percent. Early signs of stabilization in retail sales figures may have helped as well.

The report’s limited implications for larger macro themes dominating investors’ attention may likewise explain the tepid response. Extrapolating a view on future Chinese growth seems nearly impossible without greater clarity on trade negotiations with the US, making today’s release appear somewhat moot.

Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - 1 minute

1-minute AUD/USD chart created with TradingView

Assessing the broader landscape, choppy AUD/USD consolidation since early August leaves firmly intact a well-defined downtrend established from late December 2018. Prevailing monetary policy trends suggest it is likely to continue, with longer-term charts setting the stage for deep losses in the months ahead.

Australian Dollar Firm After China GDP Miss But Trend Aims Lower

Daily AUD/USD chart created with TradingView

AUD/USD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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