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Trade-Focused AUD Shrugs As Business Confidence Returns To Zero

Trade-Focused AUD Shrugs As Business Confidence Returns To Zero

David Cottle, Analyst


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Australian Dollar, National Australia Bank Business Confidence Indicator Talking Points:

  • NAB’s confidence measure slipped back to zero
  • It was last at that point back in March
  • NAB said the pace of trend decline may be slowing

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The Australian Dollar was perhaps surprisingly steady on Tuesday as a key indicator of business confidence slipped once again and hit the psychologically important zero level.

National Australia Bank’s closely watched monthly measure fell to that point in September, from just 1 in August. Perceptions of business conditions’ score improved to 2 from 1, but both remain well below their long-term average which is 6.

Business confidence has now returned to the levels seen in March, having been as high as 7 in May. NAB said that the broad-based trend decline seen since mid-2018 may have slowed but that profitability and trading conditions remained below average. Employment remains a bright spot, with its index rising slightly. This mirrors the official data to some extent, even if September’s figures showed unexpected weakness in full-time hiring.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, 5-Minute Chart

Still, AUD/USD didn’t move much on these figures. August’s surprise confidence fall may have inured investors to a decline in the series, with looming China-US trade talks this week probably further limiting scope for big moves in the runup.

On its broader daily chart, the Aussie remains close to eleven-year lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to trim the key Official Cash Rate to a new record low of 0.5% by February of next year, with the chance of a move at its November meeting now judged higher than 50% by futures markets.

Australian Dollar Vs US Dollar, Daily Chart.

The market has hunkered down some what, and signs of trade progress this week could see all ‘risk assets’ gain, the Australian Dollar included. However, for as long as the currency lacks domestic monetary policy support, it’s hard to see the long downtrend from late 2018 as under serious threar.

Australian Dollar Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter @DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.