USD/CAD Price Charts and Analysis:
- USD/CAD stuck in a range as technical indicators clash.
- A raft of Federal Reserve speakers through the week will add US dollar volatility.
Q3 2019 CAD and USD Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities
USD/CAD Upside Cramped by Long-Term Moving Average
USD/CAD price action has been capped by the 200-day moving average for the last month and will need a bullish driver to regain upside momentum. The daily chart shows USD/CAD below all three moving averages, although the 20-day is being threatened, with the recent one-month high at 1.3312 (September 4) the first bullish target if the moving averages are cleared and closed above. To the down side, 1.3134, the September 10 low print guards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2018 – January 2019 rally at 1.3128.
IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are currently 62.0% net-short the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, a bullish contrarian bias, which may help push prices higher in the short-term.
The pair need a driver to break higher and upcoming US data and Fed speak may provide a catalyst. In the data space, US ADP employment is released today at 12.15 GMT, ISM-non-manufacturing is released on Thursday at 14.00 GMT while on Friday the monthly US jobs market report (NFP) at 12.30 GMT will keep traders glued to their screens. All three have the ability to move the US dollar, while the Canadian dollar calendar is empty for the rest of the week.
Live Data Coverage: US Non-Farm Payrolls – Webinar from 12.15 GMT
In addition, there is a calendar packed full of Federal Reserve speakers through the end of the week. A range of Fed officials will make 10 speeches before the end of Friday, with each one a potential market mover. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s post-NFP speech is probably the most important, especially after yesterday’s decade-low US ISM manufacturing print.
USD/CAD Price Daily Chart (October 2018 – October 2, 2019)
Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.
What is your view on the Canadian Dollar – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.com or via Twitter @nickcawley1.
