Nasdaq 100 Price Forecast
- Following poor manufacturing data, the Nasdaq 100 is comfortably within its August range at 7560
- Now, the tech-heavy Index will look to hold above the 200-day moving average ahead of ISM services data on Thursday and unemployment figures due Friday
- Another miss could exacerbate volatility, in a month that is historically the most volatile on the calendar
Nasdaq 100 Price Forecast: Is the Index Headed for a Repeat of 2018?
The Nasdaq 100 is down nearly 2% from its Monday open after Tuesday’s ISM manufacturing data revealed the sector contracted further in September. The findings worked to exacerbate recessionary fears and has battered risk appetite ahead of two critically important upcoming data pieces. While manufacturing accounts for roughly 15% of the US economy, services make up about 75% of GDP – affording it a much greater share of the measure. Further, US non-farm payrolls are slated to be released on Friday. Consequently, stocks will have a busy conclusion to the first week of October which has already proved volatile.
Ahead of the data, the Nasdaq 100 will look to stem the bleeding as it awaits the next fundamental catalyst. With recent price action, the Index’s leaning looks to be lower, so support at 7528 should be watched closely. While the support offered by the Fibonacci level may not posses the technical merit to rebuke a concerted effort lower, it may provide price indecision on an intraday basis as it did Wednesday.
Nasdaq 100 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (October 2018 – October 2019)
Created with TradingView
On the other hand, the 200-day moving average around the 7385 level – aligning with the Nasdaq’s swing low in August – could be looked to as the “line in the sand.” A breach of this area would seriously undermine a bullish continuation and would likely open the door to deeper losses, potentially targeting the Index’s June lows at 6940.
View our Economic Calendar for the dates and times of upcoming data which could spark more volatility.
Should risk appetite reemerge on the back of strong data or another fundamentally bullish development, the Nasdaq will have to negotiate support-turned resistance. To that end, 7685 may pose the first barrier, followed by the 50-day moving average and the upper bound of the Index’s August range around 7775. While the market has seemingly regained its footing in Wednesday trading, the combination of heightened volatility, upcoming data and the memory of last October, has worked to eviscerate bullish sentiment.
--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX
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