We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The ECB rate decision is a top fundamental event risk later today. It is unlikely that they add on top of September's flood, but path of least resistance is sticking to range and retail traders are heavy bears: https://t.co/GCyvs6nYth
  • South Korea Q3 GDP shows 0.4% growth print Q/Q, missing 0.3% estimate - BBG #USDKRW
  • #Gold: Buyers have remained at bay, even with the $USD sell-off, as a bull flag formation has built around a 23.6% retracement of that recent major move.Get your $gld market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/tkY4716pfC https://t.co/mik1bjz3Fo
  • #BRL, #COP and the #CLP are expected to be the most active Latin American currencies vs USD with 1-week implied volatilities at 13.55, 10.30 and 10.06 respectively
  • RT @LiveSquawk: News Recap - - Some BOJ Policy Makers Want to Save Ammunition - WSJ https://t.co/zweqHl37Ij
  • Australia’s CBA Australia PMI Composite (OCT P) Actual: 50.7 Est: N/A Previous: 52.0 CBA Australia PMI Mfg (OCT P) Actual: 50.1 Est: N/A Previous: 50.3 CBA Australia PMI Services (OCT P) Actual: 50.8 Est: N/A Previous: 52.4 #AUD
  • With Tesla up nearly 20% in after-hours trading, the company has seen its market cap balloon by roughly $9b from $45.5b to $54.4b Pretty incredible short squeeze if you ask me $TSLA
  • Tomorrow holds a few high profile fundamental updates: ECB decision (mon pol) and PMIs (recession fear). But, this pales in comparison to the densely packed run of key events for next week (US and EZ GDP, FOMC decision, BOJ forecasts, Chinese industrial profits; sentiment surveys
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD CBA Australia PMI Composite (OCT P) due at 22:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 52.0 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-23
  • Heads Up:🇦🇺 AUD CBA Australia PMI Services (OCT P) due at 22:00 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 52.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-23
Euro Suffers as US Dollar Hits 2019 Peak, AUD Eyes Possible RBA Surprise - US Market Open

Euro Suffers as US Dollar Hits 2019 Peak, AUD Eyes Possible RBA Surprise - US Market Open

2019-09-30 13:04:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – Euro Suffers as US Dollar Hits 2019 Peak, AUD Eyes Possible RBA Surprise

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

New Zealand Dollar took a hit as business confidence dropped to a 11-year low which has come despite the RBNZ’s surprise 50bps cut in August. Consequently, the Kiwi made a fresh 4-year low having briefly dipped below 0.6250. While CFTC positioning highlights that net NZD shorts may be at extreme levels, the lack of positives emanating from the New Zealand economy keeps the currency pressured.

Australian Dollar eyes the RBA rate decision in which expectations are for a 25bps rate cut as money markets price in 19bps (=78% likelihood) worth of easing. However, last week saw RBA Governor Lowe refrain from providing a confirmatory signal, while the RBA’s Shadow Board has attached a 65% probability that the OCR should remain at 1% with a 24% probability that a cut is required. As such, given current market pricing risks are asymetrically tilted to the upside provided that the RBA keeps the cash rate unchanged. That said, in light of the deterioation risk environment, rallies in the currency may well be sold.

US Dollar posts fresh 2019 highs as Euro and Sterling breaks below 1.09 and 1.23 respectively. Concerns are likely to persist among the ECB rate setters as German inflation dipped below expectations with the headline rate at 1.2% (exp. 1.3%), which also came in tandem with yet another slide in inflation expectations. Elsewhere, UK politics is expected to boost volatility in the Pound.

WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY

  1. Sterling (GBP) Price Remains Volatile as Brexit Rumors Swirl” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  2. EUR/USD, EUR/JPY Outlook: Price May Change its Current Direction” by Mahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst
  3. US Dollar Preferred Safe-Haven, CAD Longs Slashed, NZD Shorts Extreme - COT Report” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.