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EUR/USD: Euro Wilts on Woeful PMI Data, ECB’s Draghi Speaks

EUR/USD: Euro Wilts on Woeful PMI Data, ECB’s Draghi Speaks

Rich Dvorak, Analyst

EURO SINKS AFTER BIG MISS ON MARKIT PMI DATA, ECB’S DRAGHI TESTIFIES AT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

  • EURUSD plunged below 1.1000 after September Eurozone PMI data disappoints
  • ECB President Mario Draghi comments on monetary policy and the Euro economy during the central banker’s testimony to European Parliament in Brussels
  • Take a look at IG Client Sentiment data for insight on the bearish and bullish biases of EUR forex traders

EURUSD is trading back below 1.1000 and at its weakest reading since the September ECB meeting after the latest Eurozone PMI report reignited Euro selling pressure. The flash Eurozone PMI composite output index plunged to a 75-month low in September according to IHS Markit driven by a deepening contraction in the manufacturing industry and is showing signs of spreading to the services sector. The DailyFX Economic Calendar summarizes the data readings and consensus estimates.

EUROZONE MARKIT PMI READINGS PLUNGE IN SEPTEMBER

IHS Markit Eurozone PMI Historical Data Chart

EURUSD PRICE CHART: 1-HOUR TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 17, 2019 TO SEPTEMBER 23, 2019)

EURUSD Price Chart Euro Drops on PMI Data as Draghi Testifies

EURUSD took a nosedive below the 1.1000 handle immediately after the Eurozone PMI data figures crossed the wire, which followed Germany’s “simply awful” manufacturing PMI prints. EUR weakness owing to the disappointing datapoints was broad as EURGBP, EURJPY, EURAUD and EURCAD sank similarly, but the Euro has since attempted to rebound from intraday lows while ECB President Mario Draghi’s testimony to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs unfolds.

ECB PRESIDENT MARIO DRAGHI TESTIFIES AT EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

ECB’s Draghi is under fire at the European Parliament in Brussels today as the Eurozone’s head central banker discusses its recent monetary policy decisions and outlook on the economy. Here are some highlights from his key comments:

  • Economic slowdown is mainly due to weakness of international trade, persistent uncertainties, protectionist policies and geopolitical factors
  • Sees need for monetary policy to remain highly accommodative for a prolonged period of time, but side-effects are growing. Stimulus will end when it is possible to do so without causing economic damage
  • Euro area growth momentum has slowed markedly and more so than the ECB had previously anticipated. The longer that weakness in manufacturing persists, the greater the risks that other sectors of the economy will be affected by the slowdown
  • The ECB continues to stand ready to adjust all instruments if warranted by the inflation outlook
  • Fiscal policy must make a more decisive contribution. EU fiscal rules haven’t been good for growth or jobs, rules should be revised
  • The Euro is not especially weak

Mario Draghi is not the only central banker in the spotlight Monday as the US comes online. Outgoing Chief of the IMF Christine Lagarde, who will replace Draghi at the ECB’s helm on November 1, just stated in an interview on CNBC that tariffs stemming from the ongoing US-China trade war stand to shave a near full percentage point off global GDP growth next year. Lagarde’s comments follow the recent slash to the OECD’s global GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 2.9% for 2019 and from 3.4% to 3.0% for 2020 respectively, with the organization’s chief economist underscoring how “growth is taking a dangerous downward turn.”

While EURUSD whipsawed back higher after details out of the September ECB meeting revealed that French, German and Dutch ECB Governors opposed the resumption of quantitative easing, a looming economic recession hinted at by today’s PMI data - coupled with pessimistic comments from Lagarde - may warrant further dovish action from the ECB down the road, which may serve as a daunting headwind for the Euro over the near term.

-- Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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