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Crude Oil Price Outlook: Oil Backwardation Highest in 6 Years

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Oil Backwardation Highest in 6 Years

Justin McQueen, Analyst

Oil Price Analysis and News

  • Oil Watchers Await Saudi Oil Minister Press Conference
  • Oil Backwardation Hints at Lengthy Supply Disruption

Crude Oil Watchers Await Saudi Oil Minister Press Conference

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain at the forefront of investors’ minds with the Saudi Oil minister scheduled to speak from 18:15BST. It is expected that he will update on the severity of the damage sustained at the Abqaiq oil processing facility and the length of time it will take to return back towards full capacity. That said, a suggestion that it will take longer than a few weeks to restore the oil processing facility is likely to keep oil prices at these elevated levels.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Oil Backwardation Highest in 6 Years

Oil prices sees over a 6 standard deviation move.

Crude Oil Backwardation Hints at Lengthy Supply Disruption

In the futures market, backwardation (spot price at a premium to futures price) in the Brent crude 6-month futures curve has spiked to its highest since September 2013, a time at which Brent crude futures were trading above $100/bbl. As such, markets signal that the supply shortage from Saudi Arabia may be somewhat longer than a few weeks, raising the likelihood that Brent crude futures could make another move above $70/bbl. That said, reports from Saudi Aramco this morning note that customers have been told that October oil loadings are likely to be delayed.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Oil Backwardation Highest in 6 Years

Oil Impact on FX

Net Oil Importers: These countries tend to be worse off when the price of oil rises. This includes, KRW, ZAR, INR, TRY, EUR, CNY, IDR, JPY

Net Oil Exporters: These counties tend to benefit when the price of oil rises. This includes RUB, CAD, MXN, NOK.

Recommended Reading

What Traders Need to Know When Trading the Oil Market

Important Difference Between WTI and Brent

Crude oil facts

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

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