We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Trader tip: Not making a decision means avoiding #FOMOintrading. @IlyaSpivak https://t.co/PGD0n13D9p
  • Easing trade tensions provide tailwinds for equity markets. Get your update form @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/79q553DJNa
  • Here's a link to my technical outlook for the Dollar this week: 'US Dollar Facing Measured Breakout and In Its Long Grind Higher' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/22/US-Dollar-Facing-Measured-Breakout-and-In-Its-Long-Grind-Higher.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Kicklighter&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @business: A senior official from the Bank for International Settlements has added his voice to those calling on governments to back up…
  • RT @JimPethokoukis: “The recent rise in trade policy uncertainty is extraordinary by several metrics ... much evidence points to negative e…
  • Traders should know how to confidently approach, enter and exit both Bull or Bear markets. Need some insight into it? Get it from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/GhvvFrB3gz https://t.co/JxyCkhOHSS
  • What is the biggest obstacle a trader needs to overcome to be successful? Find out from @JWagnerFXTrader here: https://t.co/7nWHSApUzS #FOMOintrading https://t.co/vXfEWo58RY
  • OECD warns of recession, central banks unleash, and the $USD builds breakout pressure. Get your update from @JohnKicklighter here: https://t.co/UKg6wfl8PB
  • What are the 6 common mistakes traders make? Is #FOMO a common mistake? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/B7hOpGEHMp #FOMOintrading https://t.co/WOYk6lOJur
  • All currencies are not the same; emerging market #FX trades differently than developed market FX. Find out how these currencies differ, from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/BH8oal18sz https://t.co/IvomjZw0Bc
US Dollar Uptrend Under Pressure Ahead of Sales Data and FOMC Rate Decision

US Dollar Uptrend Under Pressure Ahead of Sales Data and FOMC Rate Decision

2019-09-13 11:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst

We are constantly looking to improve our client service and your views matter to us. You can let us know what you think via our Short Online Survey Here.

  • US Retail Sales data will steer the US dollar in the short-term.
  • US dollar basket chart flashes conflicting signals.

Q3 2019 USD Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

For all economic and data releases see the DailyFX Economic Calendar

US Dollar Sells-off Ahead of Retail Sales Release

The greenback is under pressure with the US dollar basket down around 120 pips since hitting a 228-month high at the start of the month. In part the basket has been underpinned by weakness in the Euro and Sterling – which have both strengthened in the past 24-hours – while recent data has been mixed. Last week ISM manufacturing release was much stronger than expected while the US Labour Report (NFP) showed a slower rate of job creation but higher average hourly earnings. And yesterday’s inflation release – stronger than expected – adds to the current conundrum facing the Fed who are looking to cut interest rates further next week in the face of a strong jobs/wages market alongside a robust inflation backdrop.

Today’s advanced look at US Retail Sales (August) is expected to show a month-on-month downturn to 0.2% from a prior month’s 0.7%. While the US consumer has more money, and the jobs market remains tight, the ongoing US-China trade war may see consumers pare back investment decision until the political backdrop looks clearer.

US Retail Sales Data

US Dollar Uptrend Under Pressure Ahead of Sales Data and FOMC Rate Decision

Via TradingEconomics.Com

The recent sell-off in the US dollar has seen the greenback break below the 20-day moving average and touch the 50-day ma, adding to bearish momentum. The recent set of higher lows remain in place while the trend of higher highs has just been broken, although a retail sales beat may see this formation return.

Buy the Higher Low and Sell the Lower High

US Dollar Basket Daily Price Chart (January - September 13, 2019)

US Dollar Uptrend Under Pressure Ahead of Sales Data and FOMC Rate Decision

IG Client Sentiment data shows how retail traders are positioned in a wide array of financial markets and how daily and weekly changes can help form trading ideas.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on the US Dollar. You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.