We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • #USDollar May Rise if US #GDP Data, #TradeWar Risks Spook Markets https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2019/09/21/US-Dollar-May-Rise-if-US-GDP-Data-Trade-War-Risks-Spook-Markets.html
  • Asia #FX markets will be closely watching for developments in the ongoing China-led RCEP trade negotiations against the backdrop of slower global growth and rising protectionism. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/g332JcY549
  • What are trading journals? How can you create one and reduce your #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/0akgWbyJEw https://t.co/Xyy7rxZHip
  • 💷 $GBP British Pound Weekly Technical Outlook My latest take on Sterling price action as #Brexit risk comes back into scope. Commentary on the charts and implied volatility table included. More via @DailyFX ➡️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/21/gbp-to-usd-price-analysis-british-pound-eyes-rise-in-brexit-risk.html https://t.co/Hd6LAurfqG
  • The Singapore Dollar is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/SCHhCQhlFV
  • What are the common trading myths which can create #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/sDbOusCpzg
  • Walk through the new and improved IG Client Sentiment Data with @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/FTm5nXIAmq
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Lk229DNh6n
  • Catch up with @JStanleyFX as he walks through some FX price action setups post-FOMC. Get your recap here: https://t.co/MD2PB33t0L
  • What is the @ecb (European Central Bank)? What are the key mandates of the bank and how can it affect the #forex market? Find out: https://t.co/romV4hPQJv https://t.co/4nlCaUNhpD
EURUSD Price Struggles to Move as US Labor Report (NFP) Looms

EURUSD Price Struggles to Move as US Labor Report (NFP) Looms

2019-09-06 11:00:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
Share:

  • US NFP will be the short-term driver of EURUSD price action.
  • ECB and FOMC rate decisions will steer EURUSD over the medium-term

Q3 2019 EUR and USD Forecasts and Top Trading Opportunities

The latest US Labor report, scheduled at 12.30 GMT, is expected to show job growth of 160k in August after growth of 164k in July. The unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.7%, while average hourly earnings y/y are seen turning 0.2% lower to 3.0%. The market started to price-in better than expected job growth on Thursday after ADP employment change beat expectations – 195k against 148k. While the two numbers are not strongly correlated, the US job market remains robust and an upside beat today cannot be ruled out.

Live Coverage of the US Labor Report from 12.15 GMT - Webinar

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (February – September 6, 2019)

EURUSD Price Struggles to Move as US Labor Report (NFP) Looms

IG Client Sentiment data show that of retail traders are 61.0% net-long of EURUSD, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that EURUSD may soon reverse higher.

ECB and FOMC Monetary Policy Decisions

While today’s NFP report will decide the short-term future of EURUSD, over the coming two weeks there will be important central bank rate decisions from the ECB and the Fed that will have a longer-term impact on the pair. The ECB meeting on Thursday September 12 is expected to see the central bank cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.50%, introduce a tiered bank rate and either announce or implement a fresh round of bond buying (QE) to re-boot the Euro-Zone economy. Lower interest rates and renewed QE will weigh on the Euro further.

And less than one week later – September 18 – the US Federal Reserve are fully expected to cut the Fed fund rate by another 0.25% to 1.75% to 2.0%, the second cut this year. There is a very small chance that the Fed may cut by 50 basis points – something that would please a vocal US President Trump – although a strong NFP number today may take that possibility off the table. This meeting will also see the release of the latest US economic projections which should give the market greater insight into the Fed’s thinking and the current state of the US economy.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.