We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • 🇬🇧 GBP House Price Index (YoY) (JUL), Actual: N/A Expected: N/A Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.8% Previous: 1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.8% Previous: 2.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • 🇬🇧 GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.4% Previous: 0.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • 🇬🇧 GBP CPIH (YoY) (AUG), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.9% Previous: 2.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-18
  • Join @PaulRobinsonFX 's #webinar at 5:30 AM ET/9:30 AM GMT for insight on London #FX and #CFD trading. Register here: https://t.co/HmQ7tPOxXz https://t.co/Z5Jr7lRzPU
  • Missed today's #AUDUSD weekly outlook webinar? See the recording here - https://t.co/J4cnRMGNi8
  • Crude Oil Prices May Idle as the FOMC Regains the Spotlight - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/commodities/2019/09/17/Crude-Oil-Prices-May-Idle-as-the-FOMC-Regains-the-Spotlight.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr #CrudeOil #OOTT
  • US Energy Secretary Perry says the US is taking a wait and see approach as to whether to use SPR
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/TBxNcA745X
Euro Outlook: Italian Political Crisis Monitor - What Happens Next?

Euro Outlook: Italian Political Crisis Monitor - What Happens Next?

2019-08-22 11:00:00
Justin McQueen, Analyst
Share:

Euro Price Analysis and Talking Points:

  • Italian Political Roadmap
  • PM Conte Resigns, President Mattarella Looking for New Government
  • Italian Political Scenario (New Government or New Elections)

See our quarterly EUR forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3!

Italian Political Roadmap

Euro Outlook: Italian Political Crisis Monitor - What Happens Next?

Source: DailyFX

PM Conte Resigns, President Mattarella Looking for New Government

Following the resignation of Italian Prime Minister Conte, President Mattarella has been left with two options. Gather party leaders to gauge the possibility of forming a new coalition government with the purpose of passing the 2020 budget or dissolve parliament and call for a snap election.

The Italian President is seemingly in a rush to find a new Prime Minister with a deadline set for next week given that talks regarding the 2020 budget are due to take place next month. As such, Mattarella will be meeting with the major parties today in order to form a government and avoid a snap election.

Italian President Mattarella’s Schedule

  • Democratic Party (1000BST)
  • Forza Italia (1100BST)
  • League Party (1500BST)
  • Five Star Party (1600BST)

Italian Political Scenario

Technocratic Government: As evidenced by Tuesday’s price action in response to PM Conte’s resignation. A technocratic government would be the most supportive scenario for the Euro and Italian BTPs, provided the coalition is formed of the 5 Star and Democratic Party (PD). However, with the 5 Star party initially stating that they would not form an alliance with the center-left PD party, focus will on any change in rhetoric. (Bullish BTPs and Italian Banks to perform well in this scenario)

Snap Elections: Failure to find a new coalition government would likely see snap elections take place, which in turn would be the worst-case scenario, particularly with snap elections potentially taking place in the Autumn. Alongside this, a Salvini led government would likely be the case given the performance in opinion polls, which has seen support double for the League party since the 2018 general election. As such, risks could spillover into the Eurozone with concerns over the 2020 budget, thus weighing on Italian assets and the Euro. (Bearish EURJPY and EURCHF likely to performance best in this scenario)

Euro Outlook: Italian Political Crisis Monitor - What Happens Next?

Source: DailyFX

FX TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.