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Federal Reserve Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Maintains Monthly Asset Purchases

Real Time News
  • Fed's Powell: - MBS and tapering were brought up by a number of FOMC participants - We will taper both (MBS & Treasuries) at the same time most likely
  • Fed's Powell: - Strong capital requirements are a "must" for banks, especially the largest banks - Capital requirements allow banks to continue to perform during severe downturns
  • The July FOMC press conference is hammering home this point: the labor market mandate is now on equal footing with the inflation mandate (which is atypical); and Powell is now making the case that the labor mandate is *more important* to normalization than the inflation side.
  • Fed's Powell: - Fed has not made a decision on when taper will commence - Variety of opinions with in the Committee on when tapering should begin
  • Fed's Powell: - Transitory means not impacting longer-run inflation patterns - We must be extremely careful when it comes to the inflation mandate
  • Fed's Powell: - Fear of COVID and unemployment benefits are keeping people from working - Such a high vacancy-to-unemployed ratio is rare
  • Fed's Powell: - We are not looking at raising rates, but instead asset purchases - Ideally you would not be raising rates before tapering
  • @CVecchioFX @RiskReversal @GuyAdami Gold is headed back to the bar for another bender #LowerForLonger
  • Fed's Powell: - Move in yields not pinned on one single factor - Technical factors, movements in real yields shifting bond market
  • Fed's Powell: - In the near-term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside - If inflation continues to rise above the Committee's goal, Fed will use its tools to guide inflation lower
Crude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market Open

Crude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market Open

Justin McQueen, Analyst

MARKET DEVELOPMENT – Crude Oil Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Cuts, ZAR Firms on Inflation

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

Oil: Brent crude futures are notably firmer this morning, trading higher by over 1.5% as the broad risk on sentiment underpins. Alongside this, yesterday’s larger than expected API crude inventory decline of 3.5mln barrels has also added to the lift in oil prices, which in turn has seen oil-linked currencies (NOK, CAD) slightly firmer. Focus going forward will be on whether the DoE confirms yesterday’s crude inventory drawdown, while the FOMC minutes will also be eyed by market participants, however, the greater focus should potentially be on the Jackson Hole Symposium speech by Powell on Friday.

Elsewhere, Canada have announced that they will extend their oil production cuts in Alberta by 1yr to the end of 2020. The reason behind the extension had been due to delays in pipeline approvals, which in effect could have seen production outstrip capacity by 150kbpd, resulting in the reemergence of the large price discount of West Canadian Select vs WTI crude that had been seen at the back end of 2018. That said, with the government also looking to raise the exemption limit to 20kbpd from 10kbpd (first 20kbpd exempt from cuts) in order to ease the burden on small producers, oil production is expected to rise slightly to 3.79mbpd from 3.76mbpd.

Emerging Markets

ZAR: The South African Rand is on the front foot following the latest inflation report, which saw the headline rate drop towards the lower end of the SARB’s inflation range target (3-6%) at 4% from 4.5%. Consequently, this raises the likelihood that the central bank could potentially ease monetary policy (next meeting Sep 19th). Alongside this, the Rand had been given an additional boost as well as other emerging market currencies following dovish commentary from Fed’s Kashkari, who noted that rate cuts should be accompanied by a change in forward guidance.

Crude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market OpenCrude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market Open

Source: DailyFX

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Crude Oil Prices Heads Higher, Canada Extends Oil Production Cuts - US Market Open

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  1. S&P 500, Crude Oil, Gold Price Technical Outlook & More” by Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
  2. Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD Faces Data and Central Bank Risks” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
  3. Gold Price Analysis: FOMC Minutes Ahead, However, Jackson Hole Takes Precedence” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
  4. Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor

--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst

To contact Justin, email him at

Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.