News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here:
  • Moving averages are extremely popular due to its easy-to-use nature and multitude of uses when trading. What are some popular moving averages and how can you use them? Find out:
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here:
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here:
  • Long wick candles are recurrent within the forex market. This makes understanding the meaning behind these candles invaluable to any trader to comprehend the market dynamics during a specific period. Learn about the importance of extended wicks here:
  • Safe haven stocks also allow traders to diversify their portfolio and reduce risk. Learn if safe-haven stocks are made for you here:
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here:
  • but the next major point in my view to monitor will be 52.76 - at least in the short term.
  • #Brent having broken above the pre-OPEC drop off at 45.51 is a huge deal considering it failed to crack resistance there in August (leading to the invalidation of "uptrend 2") and the psychological significance of that level
  • The New Zealand Dollar looks poised to extend its push higher against its haven-associated counterparts on robust economic data and a less dovish stance from the RBNZ. Get your $NZD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

2019-08-21 20:00:00
Peter Hanks, Analyst

Bitcoin Price Forecast:

  • Bitcoin bears staged yet another run at the ascending trendline from May, but bulls have worked to rebuke the move
  • Without a close beneath the line, near-term bullishness is a possibility but a series of lower highs from June is not encouraging over the medium-term
  • Check out the DailyFX Podcast with guest Tone Vays for Bitcoin and Libra predictions. Mr. Vays specializes in Bitcoin and blockchain and was a vice president at JP Morgan Chase in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Bitcoin broke beneath trendline support again on Wednesday as the coin’s rally continues to face headwinds. After the loss of fundamental drivers and failure to breakthrough the descending trendline from June, I have recently argued further BTC losses may be on the horizon in the short to medium term. While BTCUSD has not yet posted a close beneath the May trendline, continued tests do elicit confidence. Further, a series of lower highs from June could speak to waning confidence among bulls.

Bitcoin Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May – August) (Chart 1)

BTCUSD chart

Chart created with TradingView

Despite the potential breakdown, Bitcoin is arguably in a better position now than it was in early August – from a technical perspective. Upon prior tests, the distance between the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $9,545 and the ascending trendline was minimal, which would have allowed BTCUSD to break beneath both in a single move. Now, however, Bitcoin has distanced itself from the 38.2% level and may be able to look to it for support upon a confirmed break of the trendline.

Bitcoin Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May – August) (Chart 2)

bitcoin price chart

Chart created with TradingView

If bulls reemerge and look to drive price higher, initial resistance will be offered by the 200-simple moving average on the four hour chart which has proved influential in the second-half of August. June’s descending trendline and the 50% retracement at $11,526 will look to offer secondary and tertiary barriers. At present, there seems to be few signs to suggest that Bitcoin price will immediately rebound. Until such a signal is offered, I am inclined to suspect BTC price will continue to bleed lower in the near-term.

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Looking to IG Client Sentiment Data, overwhelming long exposure may suggest BTC will continue to fall as we typically view crowd sentiment as a contrarian indicator. Retail trader data shows 80.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.11 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.5% higher than Tuesday and 8.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.6% lower than Tuesday and 10.7% lower from last week. As Bitcoin negotiates the rising trendline, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for fundamental and technical analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Strength May Fade

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.