We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • #USDollar May Rise if US #GDP Data, #TradeWar Risks Spook Markets https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2019/09/21/US-Dollar-May-Rise-if-US-GDP-Data-Trade-War-Risks-Spook-Markets.html
  • Asia #FX markets will be closely watching for developments in the ongoing China-led RCEP trade negotiations against the backdrop of slower global growth and rising protectionism. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/HZ8Loqj3Ey https://t.co/g332JcY549
  • What are trading journals? How can you create one and reduce your #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/0akgWbyJEw https://t.co/Xyy7rxZHip
  • 💷 $GBP British Pound Weekly Technical Outlook My latest take on Sterling price action as #Brexit risk comes back into scope. Commentary on the charts and implied volatility table included. More via @DailyFX ➡️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/09/21/gbp-to-usd-price-analysis-british-pound-eyes-rise-in-brexit-risk.html https://t.co/Hd6LAurfqG
  • The Singapore Dollar is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the $SGD and how to trade it from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/SCHhCQhlFV
  • What are the common trading myths which can create #FOMOintrading? Find out: https://t.co/sDbOusCpzg
  • Walk through the new and improved IG Client Sentiment Data with @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/FTm5nXIAmq
  • Lessons from Bretton Woods are forgotten, the US-China #tradewar represents a true existential threat to the post-World War II international trade order, and in turn, the globalized economy that has grown out of the ashes of history. More from @CVecchioFX :https://t.co/paaBxX6Xt0 https://t.co/Lk229DNh6n
  • Catch up with @JStanleyFX as he walks through some FX price action setups post-FOMC. Get your recap here: https://t.co/MD2PB33t0L
  • What is the @ecb (European Central Bank)? What are the key mandates of the bank and how can it affect the #forex market? Find out: https://t.co/romV4hPQJv https://t.co/4nlCaUNhpD
Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

2019-08-21 20:00:00
Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst
Share:

Bitcoin Price Forecast:

  • Bitcoin bears staged yet another run at the ascending trendline from May, but bulls have worked to rebuke the move
  • Without a close beneath the line, near-term bullishness is a possibility but a series of lower highs from June is not encouraging over the medium-term
  • Check out the DailyFX Podcast with guest Tone Vays for Bitcoin and Libra predictions. Mr. Vays specializes in Bitcoin and blockchain and was a vice president at JP Morgan Chase in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Bitcoin broke beneath trendline support again on Wednesday as the coin’s rally continues to face headwinds. After the loss of fundamental drivers and failure to breakthrough the descending trendline from June, I have recently argued further BTC losses may be on the horizon in the short to medium term. While BTCUSD has not yet posted a close beneath the May trendline, continued tests do elicit confidence. Further, a series of lower highs from June could speak to waning confidence among bulls.

Bitcoin Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (May – August) (Chart 1)

BTCUSD chart

Chart created with TradingView

Despite the potential breakdown, Bitcoin is arguably in a better position now than it was in early August – from a technical perspective. Upon prior tests, the distance between the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $9,545 and the ascending trendline was minimal, which would have allowed BTCUSD to break beneath both in a single move. Now, however, Bitcoin has distanced itself from the 38.2% level and may be able to look to it for support upon a confirmed break of the trendline.

Bitcoin Price Chart: 4 – Hour Time Frame (May – August) (Chart 2)

bitcoin price chart

Chart created with TradingView

If bulls reemerge and look to drive price higher, initial resistance will be offered by the 200-simple moving average on the four hour chart which has proved influential in the second-half of August. June’s descending trendline and the 50% retracement at $11,526 will look to offer secondary and tertiary barriers. At present, there seems to be few signs to suggest that Bitcoin price will immediately rebound. Until such a signal is offered, I am inclined to suspect BTC price will continue to bleed lower in the near-term.

Bitcoin Forecast: BTC Probes Support, but Bulls Keep Price Afloat

Looking to IG Client Sentiment Data, overwhelming long exposure may suggest BTC will continue to fall as we typically view crowd sentiment as a contrarian indicator. Retail trader data shows 80.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.11 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 1.5% higher than Tuesday and 8.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.6% lower than Tuesday and 10.7% lower from last week. As Bitcoin negotiates the rising trendline, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for fundamental and technical analysis.

--Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more:Canadian Dollar Price Forecast: USD/CAD Strength May Fade

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.