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US Dollar Price Outlook: Is the USD Rally Becoming Stretched?

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is the USD Rally Becoming Stretched?

2019-08-20 09:54:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

US Dollar Price (DXY), Chart and Analysis:

  • US President Trump wants interest rate cuts and lots of them.
  • The strength of the USD continues to annoy the US President.

Q3 2019 USD Forecast andTop Trading Opportunities

Another 0.25% US interest cut is fully priced-in for the September FOMC meeting with markets also seeing a 16% chance of a 0.50% rate cut as the central bank gets set to loosen monetary policy further as recession fears grow. US President Donald Trump is looking for 100 basis points of rate cuts, according to his Twitter account, as he continues to state that the US dollar is too high and uncompetitive against the other majors.

Yet the greenback refuses to wilt and move lower with the daily US dollar chart dominated by an unbroken trend of higher lows from late-June onwards, sending the price back to challenge its recent 98.47 high, the highest level seen since mid-May 2017. The dollar is also above all three supportive moving averages. The CCI indictor shows the USD nearing overbought territory, although its recent rise is slowing down.

The dollar is picking up a bid from a weak Euro and Brexit-weakened British Pound, but its recent rally may be setting up the market for a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ moment that could see the supportive uptrend, currently around 97.28, tested in the short-term.

Currency Volatility: Euro Potentially Under-Pricing Italian Risk

GBPUSD Price Outlook Fragile as Boris Johnson Heads to Europe

Ahead this week, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be closely parsed for any signs that the Fed are considering further easing, while Fed chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday may well add further color on the central bank’s stance.

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

US Dollar Price Outlook: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD.

US Dollar (DXY) Daily Chart (November 2018 – August 20, 2019)

US Dollar Price Outlook: Is the USD Rally Becoming Stretched?

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on USD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.