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US Dollar May Gain Versus Ringgit Despite Malaysia GDP Surprise

US Dollar May Gain Versus Ringgit Despite Malaysia GDP Surprise

2019-08-16 04:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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Malaysian Ringgit, USD/MYR, Malaysia GDP Talking Points

  • Malaysian Ringgit gains after better-than-expected local Q2 GDP data
  • US Dollar may resume rise as trade wars fuel demand for safe havens
  • In the near-term, USD/MYR uptrend is looking increasingly vulnerable

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Malaysian Ringgit Gains as Local GDP Beats Expectations

The US Dollar may resume its rise against MYR despite better-than-expected Malaysian growth after Singapore’s disappointed. In the second quarter, Malaysian GDP rose 4.9 percent y/y versus 4.7 percent anticipated. That was the fastest pace of expansion since the first quarter of 2018. Quarter-over-quarter, growth clocked in at 1.0 percent which was better than the 0.9 estimate but down from 1.1 percent prior.

Looking at expenditures, the bulk of outperformance in Malaysia was derived from private spending which increased 7.8 percent y/y. Consumption does represent roughly two-thirds of the economy. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services contracted 2.1 percent while exports rose 0.1 percent. Since imports subtract from GDP while exports increase it, the reduction in the former worked to boost growth.

While this may support the Malaysian Ringgit in the near-term, downside risks are brewing externally. Over the past 24 hours, we saw US President Donald Trump hint that his trade war with China and Europe could go on for some time. The threat of capital fleeing emerging markets and the ASEAN region during times of aggressive risk aversion could work to boost the haven-linked and highly-liquid US Dollar.

USD/MYR Technical Analysis

The USD/MYR daily chart does appear to be showing signs of a top in the near-term with support being pressured at 4.1800. This followed negative RSI divergence which showed fading upside momentum which at times is a signal of an impending reversal or consolidation to come. A decline places the next area of support at 4.1550. Otherwise, resuming its near-term uptrend exposes 4.2090.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

US Dollar May Gain Versus Ringgit Despite Malaysia GDP Surprise

Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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