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GBPUSD, EURGBP Prices, Brexit and Market Risk - Webinar

GBPUSD, EURGBP Prices, Brexit and Market Risk - Webinar

2019-08-12 12:13:00
Nick Cawley, Analyst
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Sterling (GBP) Pairs - Prices, Charts and Analysis:

  • Financial markets start the week in risk-off mode.
  • Heavyweight data may support Sterling but is unlikely to send it much higher.

Q3 2019 GBP Currency Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

UK Data May Prove Sterling (GBP) Supportive

Some heavyweight UK data releases this week that are expected to show that the UK jobs and wages market remain strong and the inflation is at target, leaving the Bank of England with a problem. While this, expected, data would normally push the BoE to hike rates, Brexit remains the main driver of UK monetary policy and in the case of a no-deal Brexit, the next move in UK interest rates is lower. Sterling remains weak against both the USD and EUR and if data disappoints, a further break lower should be expected.

Brexit headlines are limited due to the Parliamentary recess but there is growing talk that a group of Remainer MPs will try and stop PM Johnson from leaving the EU without a deal by calling for a vote of no confidence. The PM’s special advisor Dominic Cummings has already said that it is too late to try and derail the process, although in UK politics, anything is possible.

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (February – August 12, 2019)

GBPUSD, EURGBP Prices, Brexit and Market Risk - Webinar

Retail traders are 77.5% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bearish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger GBPUSD bearish bias.

EURGBP has edged lower after making a new high earlier in the session. Since then the pair have sold-off and for EURGBP to press to its next target – 0.9435 made in October 2016 – then it will need to close above 0.93067.

EURGBP Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – August 12, 2019)

GBPUSD, EURGBP Prices, Brexit and Market Risk - Webinar

Retail traders are 18.9% net-long EURGBP, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent changes in daily and weekly sentiment suggest that the pair may soon reverse lower.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Sterling – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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