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EURUSD Price Remains Fragile After German Industrial Production Slumps

EURUSD Price Remains Fragile After German Industrial Production Slumps

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist
What's on this page

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • German industrial production much weaker-than-expected.
  • ECB needs to pump the economy, and quick.

Q3 2019 EUR and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

The latest German industrial production data highlights the weakness plaguing the eurozone’s historic growth engine. The latest German release will heap pressure on ECB President Mario Draghi to cut interest rates further into negative territory at the September central meeting, as well as detailing additional QE.

German industrial production fell by -1.5% on a month-on-month basis, while on an annualized basis production fell by -5.2%, a multiyear low. Both releases missed expectations.

In June the German Bundesbank lowered their 2019 German GDP forecast to just 0.6% from the 1.6% forecast it made in December 2018, highlighting ongoing trade concerns. The latest German GDP numbers are released next Wednesday.

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

The German government bond yield curve, a closely-watched indicator of interest rate and inflation expectations and the eurozone proxy, is now negative all the way out to 30-years, effectively meaning that investors are locking in losses for the right to buy German debt.

The daily EURUSD chart shows Monday’s sharp gains being eroded with further downside all the way back to the 1.1100 level possible. There are a few recent highs between 1.1152 and 1.1162 that may slow any sell-off, while to the upside yesterday’s 3-week high at 1.1250 is unlikely to be tested in the short-term unless the US dollar falls sharply.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (November 2018 – August 7, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment data shows traders are 55.0% net-long EURUSD, a bearish contrarian bias. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that EURUSD may soon reverse higher.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.