Talking Points:
- Headline jobs growth comes in at 164K, nearly landing directly at the consensus forecast of 165K.
- The unemployment rate (U3) increased a touch to 3.7%, but
- The US Dollar initially gainedthreats of an immediate drop off in the US economy were dismissed for now.
See Q2’19 forecasts for the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and more with the DailyFX Trading Guides
The July US Nonfarm Payrolls report comes in as concerns over the US-China trade war have ratcheted up in recent days. But the first jobs report of the second half of the year is at least soothing concerns that the US economy has started to fall off. In turn, Federal Reserve rate expectations have steadied and made little movement that has negatively impacted the US Dollar.
The headline July US NFP printed at 164K, barely missing the initial Bloomberg News consensus forecast of 165K. There was a significant give back in the two-month revision, down by -41K, which may have dampened the initial bullish reaction by the US Dollar. Otherwise, this was as ‘goldilocks’ as a report as this could be. Wages edged slightly higher to 3.2%, and the unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1%.
Here are the data driving the US Dollar this morning:
- USD Unemployment Rate (JULY): 3.7% versus 3.6% expected, unch.
- USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUL): 164K versus 165K expected, from 193K (revised lower from 224K).
- USD Labor Force Participation Rate (JUL): 63.0% from 62.9%.
- USD Average Hourly Earnings (JUL): 3.2% versus 3.1% expected, unch (y/y).
See the DailyFX economic calendar for Friday, August 2, 2019
DXY Index Technical Analysis: 1-minute Price Chart (Intraday August 2, 2019)
Following the US jobs report release today, the DXY Index initially gained ground from 98.23 to as high as 98.38 thereafter. At the time this report was written, the DXY Index was able to maintain its rally, holding at 98.33 at the time this report was written.
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--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
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