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EURUSD Slides to Two-Year Low, Oversold Signal Flashing

EURUSD Slides to Two-Year Low, Oversold Signal Flashing

2019-08-01 08:41:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist
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EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs warn of further manufacturing woes.
  • EURUSD hit by weak euro, strong US dollar combination.

Q3 2019 EUR and USD Forecasts andTop Trading Opportunities

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

The Eurozone manufacturing sector remains in a parlous state, according to Markit PMI data, led by Germany, a traditional source of strength for the single-bloc.

EURUSD Slides to Two-Year Low, Oversold Signal Flashing

Commenting on the final Manufacturing PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The Eurozone PMI dashboard is a sea of red, with all lights warning on the deteriorating health of the region’s manufacturers. July saw production and jobs being cut as the fastest rates for over six years as order books continued to decline sharply. Prices fell at the sharpest rate for over three years as firms increasingly competed via discounting to help limit the scale of sales losses.” Williamson also warned that while policymakers have become increasingly alarmed at the deteriorating conditions, “there may be little that monetary policy can do to address these headwinds.”

While economic woes in the Eurozone continue to weigh on the euro, the US dollar continues to rally, despite the FOMC cutting interest rates by 0.25% and halting their quantitative tightening program yesterday. Forward guidance by Fed chair Jerome Powell at the post-decision press conference was deemed by the market as not dovish enough, or even mildly hawkish – “let me be clear, what I said was it’s not the beginning of a long series of rate cuts” – leaving the US dollar free to hit a fresh 27-month high.

The pair may also come under pressure from Friday’s US Labour report (NFP) with any beat of expectations (169k) or an uptick in hourly earnings likely to send the greenback even higher and EURUSD sub-1.1000.

While EURSUD looks weak on the daily chart, the CCI indicator is in extreme overbought territory and this may temper any further fall in the short-term.

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – August 1, 2019)

EURUSD Slides to Two-Year Low, Oversold Signal Flashing

IG Client Sentiment data shows traders are 74.2% net-long EURUSD, a bearish contrarian bias. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes suggest that EURUSD may soon reverse higher.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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