Gold Price Outlook: Support Holds, FOMC-Fuelled Breakout Looms
Gold (XAU) Price Outlook, Analysis and Chart
Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities
Gold Readies to Break Higher if FOMC Accommodative
The daily gold price chart continues to show the precious metal trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern with a breakout imminent, just one day before the FOMC meeting. Gold has been biding its time, and trading in a narrowing range, ahead of the Fed rate decision where the central bank is fully expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while expectations grow that a 0.50% cut may well happen. The price of gold moves higher when US interest rates move lower.
A clean break, and close, above resistance will open the way to re-test the June 25 high at $1,439.4/oz. before the July 18 high at $1,453.0/oz. If we trade above this high, then gold will be back at levels not seen since May 2013. Downside protection at $1,411.0/oz. ahead of $1,400/oz. and $1,386/oz. Gold remains above all three moving averages, including the important 200-day ma, while the CCI indicator remains supported and looks set to move higher again.
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Gold Price Daily Chart (January – July 30, 2019)
IG Client Sentiment data show that 69.8% of retail traders are net-long of gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.
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