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Gold Price Outlook: Support Holds, FOMC-Fuelled Breakout Looms

Gold Price Outlook: Support Holds, FOMC-Fuelled Breakout Looms

Nick Cawley, Senior Strategist


What's on this page

Gold (XAU) Price Outlook, Analysis and Chart

  • Gold coiled and ready to breakout.
  • FOMC the likely trigger.

Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities

Gold Readies to Break Higher if FOMC Accommodative

The daily gold price chart continues to show the precious metal trapped in a symmetrical triangle pattern with a breakout imminent, just one day before the FOMC meeting. Gold has been biding its time, and trading in a narrowing range, ahead of the Fed rate decision where the central bank is fully expected to cut interest rates by 0.25%, while expectations grow that a 0.50% cut may well happen. The price of gold moves higher when US interest rates move lower.

Live Coverage of the FOMC Rate Decision – Register Here.

A clean break, and close, above resistance will open the way to re-test the June 25 high at $1,439.4/oz. before the July 18 high at $1,453.0/oz. If we trade above this high, then gold will be back at levels not seen since May 2013. Downside protection at $1,411.0/oz. ahead of $1,400/oz. and $1,386/oz. Gold remains above all three moving averages, including the important 200-day ma, while the CCI indicator remains supported and looks set to move higher again.

200-Day Moving Average: What it is and How it Works.

The DailyFX Calendar covers all important market moving data releases and events.

Gold Price Daily Chart (January – July 30, 2019)

IG Client Sentiment data show that 69.8% of retail traders are net-long of gold, a bearish contrarian indicator. However, recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian bias.

How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at or via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.