News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • #Gold prices have plunged nearly 11% off the record highs with a breakout risking further losses. Here are technical trade levels that matter on the XAU/USD weekly chart. Get your #metals update from @MBForex here:
GBP Price Outlook: Further Falls Possible as Boris Faces Brexit Stalemate

GBP Price Outlook: Further Falls Possible as Boris Faces Brexit Stalemate

2019-07-24 09:30:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

GBP price, news and analysis:

  • The new UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has little chance of delivering a Brexit deal with the EU; potentially leading to a no-deal Brexit.
  • That could mean further losses for GBP, particularly if he is forced into a new General Election that could bring the Opposition Labour Party into power or continue the current political stalemate.
  • However, after its recent huge losses, GBPUSD may now have little further to fall.

GBPUSD price outlook: 2017 lows in sight

Incoming UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is facing the near-impossible task of delivering a Brexit deal with the EU by the latest October 31 deadline, and that could mean more downside for GBPUSD. With the EU refusing to reopen negotiations on the plan agreed with his predecessor Theresa May, Johnson could be forced into a no-deal Brexit and the prospect of no-deal could yet send GBPUSD back to the lows reached in March and April 2017.

From a technical perspective, the key levels to watch on the downside are the 1.2365 low reached in April 2017, the 1.2109 low touched in March 2017 and the 1.1982 low reached in January 2017.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Weekly Timeframe (May 23, 2016 – July 24, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD weekly price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Further Sterling (GBP) Weakness Likely if Johnson Becomes PM

Two other possibilities could weaken Sterling further: a snap General Election that could result in victory for the Opposition Labour Party, a large vote for the hardline Brexit Party or further stalemate, and a second Brexit referendum that could be won again by Leave supporters.

Nearer-term, the outlook seems negative too. GBPUSD remains in the downward sloping channel in place since May this year and could well drop to the support line of the channel under 1.24.

GBPUSD Price Chart, Daily Timeframe (May 3, 2019 – July 24, 2019)

Latest GBPUSD daily price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

Meanwhile, IG Client Sentiment data are still sending a contrarian bear signal, with retail traders long the pair outnumbering those short by three to one.

IG Client Sentiment (GBPUSD)

IG Client Sentiment chart for GBPUSD.

Source: DailyFX/IG

It is important to note, though, that after its recent weakness a near-term rally cannot be ruled out as incoming UK Prime Ministers often have a short honeymoon period. If so, a rally back to the resistance line around 1.2550 is possible, although the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is not yet at the 30 level suggesting that it has been oversold.

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.