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EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive

EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive

2019-07-24 08:24:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • German economy ‘under strain’ as manufacturing hits a seven-year low.
  • Pressure firmly on ECB to boost ailing economy as growth tipped to slow further.

Q3 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities and Forecasts

EURUSD Set to Break Below 1.1107 if Bearish Momentum Continues

The latest set of Markit PMIs highlights the weakness in growth and inflation across the Euro-Zone and puts added pressure on the ECB to act, and act quickly. German manufacturing hit an 84-month low, while the German composite PMI fell to its joint-lowest level in six years.

EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive

All four Euro-Zone PMIs missed expectations in July and, according to Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit,

“The eurozone economy relapsed in July, with the PMI giving up the gains seen in May and June to signal one of the weakest expansions seen over the past six years. The pace of GDP growth looks set to weaken from the 0.2% rate indicated for the second quarter closer to 0.1% in the third quarter.”

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

Tomorrow’s ECB meeting now takes on even more importance and may see action and not just forward guidance from outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi. Ahead of the PMI data, the central bank was expected to outline a host of measures to help boost the economy, including rate cuts and a re-start of the QE program, but it may well be that President Draghi cuts rates tomorrow, probably by 10bps, to try and get ahead of the curve.

ECB Rate Decision Webinar Live From 11.30 GMT

EURUSD Daily Price Chart (October 2018 – July 24, 2019)

EURUSD Hit by Weak PMI Data, ECB Needs to Get Aggressive

Retail traders are 71.6% net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a mixed trading bias.

We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking attrade set-ups. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars.

What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.