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Sterling (GBP) Week Ahead - All About Boris and Brexit

Sterling (GBP) Week Ahead - All About Boris and Brexit

2019-07-22 14:00:00
Nick Cawley, Strategist

Sterling (GBP) Price, Chart and Analysis:

  • Conservative leadership race will dominate Sterling this week.
  • If Brexiteer Boris Johnson is elected, how will the EU react?

Q3 2019 GBP Forecast andTop Trading Opportunities

Boris Johnson Remains the Clear Favorite to Become the New UK PM

Voting will close today at 16.00 GMT after weeks of hustings to decide who will be the Conservative Party leader, and Prime Minister, with the result expected to be announced on Tuesday. Boris Johnson is said to have an unassailable lead over rival Jeremy Hunt, and if the polls are correct, Johnson will take over at Number 10 after current PM Theresa May resigns on Wednesday.

Ahead of a possible Johnson leadership, Foreign Office Minister Sir Alan Duncan has resigned, and he is likely to be follower by around eight more senior Conservatives including Chancellor Philip Hammond and Justice Secretary David Gauke, who all say that they will not serve in a Johnson-led government.

The European Union (EU) will be watching events unfold closely ahead of talks with the next UK PM over the current Brexit impasse. Johnson has said that he will take the UK out of the EU on the October 31 deadline, deal or no deal, while Jeremy Hunt said that he is open to an extension to get the right Brexit deal agreed. As the deadline nears, Sterling will likely come under increased selling pressure, especially if no middle ground has been found between the two sides and a no-deal Brexit becomes increasingly likely.

GBPUSD & EURGBP Price Chart Outlook: Flagging at Confluence

Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar

GBPUSD Daily Price Chart (December 2018 – July 22, 2019)

Sterling (GBP) Week Ahead - All About Boris and Brexit

Retail traders are 75.8% net-long GBPUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide.

What is your view on GBPUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.