GBP: Bad to worse for the Pound, which printed a fresh 27-month low at 1.2409 with EURGBP at a 6-month high. The UK jobs report had been relatively mixed with the slowing jobs growth matched with the better than expected wage data (highest in 11yrs), as such, while GBP continued to head lower, the jobs report re-emphasises the likelihood that the BoE will remain on the side-lines for the remainder of the year, unless there is a Brexit shock. Elsewhere, no-deal Brexit worries continued to build as UK Conservative Lawmaker Grieve noted that it may be difficult for parliament to block a no-deal Brexit, while he also stated that a Brexit compromise is increasingly not possible. 1.24 is the line in the sand for GBPUSD, alongside 0.9040 in EURGBP a break through these levels are likely to exacerbate for GBP selling.
EUR: The Euro has also been on the backfoot against the greenback with the latest ZEW Survey further highlighting weak outlook for the Eurozone economy. ECB stimulus looks to be on the way, given that few improvements have been seen ahead of next week’s ECB meeting. EURUSD support at 1.12 level.
USD: While we expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the July 31st meeting by 25bps, the argument in doing so is beginning to get harder for the Fed after today’s retail sales figures (following last week’s core inflation figure). The consumer continues to be the silver lining for the US economy after a notable beat in today’s report, particularly to retail sales control group at 0.7%. Expect revisions higher in the US GDP trackers throughout the session.
NZD: NZ CPI rose to 1.7%, in line with analyst estimates, while the RBNZ’s preferred measure also held at 1.7%. Consequently, the NZD has held relatively firm against its major counterparts, however, this data is unlikely to discourage those anticipating further loosening of monetary policy at the August meeting. NZDUSD continues to hover around the 200DMA situated at 0.6715.
Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters
WHAT’S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
- “GBPUSD Price Slumps to Fresh 27-Month Low, No Respite in Sight” by Nick Cawley, Market Analyst
- “Euro Technical Analysis Overview: EURUSD, EURGBP Levels to Watch” by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
- “USD/CAD Price Forecast: US Dollar Fall Against Canadian Slows Down” byMahmoud Alkudsi, Market Analyst
- “Using FX To Effectively Trade Global Market Themes at IG” by Tyler Yell, CMT , Forex Trading Instructor
--- Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst
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