We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • #Nasdaq: The widely-watched #FAANG group could fall to the wayside if Netflix’s earnings disappoint. Get your market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/pDFxAlDVe2 https://t.co/X0ZDTPwjRu
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (3Q) due at 21:45 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 1.4% Previous: 1.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-15
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (3Q) due at 21:45 GMT (15min), Actual: N/A Expected: 0.6% Previous: 0.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-10-15
  • $EURCHF Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0879 S2: 1.0942 S1: 1.0971 R1: 1.1035 R2: 1.1069 R3: 1.1132 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • SKEW tail risk volatility indicator is currently at its highest level since July 29. Finally waking up it seems. What a leading indicator <end sarcasm>
  • Fed's Daly: -Sees US economy, FOMC policy in good place -Too soon to make sense of recent yield curve steepening -Wants 2% inflation achieved sustainably within a year -Data dependence still key for Fed policy
  • If you are harboring any designs for the Kiwi Dollar trades or have exposure, we have a 3Q CPI update coming shortly
  • $GBPUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.199 S2: 1.2289 S1: 1.2469 R1: 1.2768 R2: 1.2887 R3: 1.3185 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.40% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/mniVWFo2RE
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.09% Gold: -0.81% Silver: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fkMLmNBNWw
UK Jobs Data Fails to Cheer Up GBP Pairs, Focus on Carney Speech

UK Jobs Data Fails to Cheer Up GBP Pairs, Focus on Carney Speech

2019-07-16 09:00:00
Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst
Share:

Sterling (GBP) Talking Points:

  • UK jobs data provides mixed sentiment as wages manage to grow but claimant change is higher than expected
  • Tory leadership race drags on the uncertainty around Brexit, GBP confidence deteriorates
  • GBPUSD and EURGBP continue to head lower towards year-lows/highs with further volatility expected

GBP was losing some ground in the beginning of the morning session in anticipation of UK jobs data. Both GBPUSD and EURGBP were heading towards their year lows and highs experienced in January signalling that investors anticipated the data to show a deterioration in the jobs market as the UK political landscape continues to deteriorate investor confidence.

PRICE CHART: GBPUSD SLIDES IN ANTICIPATION OF JOBS DATA (5-MIN CHART)

UK Jobs Data Fails to Cheer Up GBP Pairs, Focus on Carney Speech

The UK unemployment rate remains at 3.8%, its lowest level in 45 years, and wage growth has picked up after three months of stagnation. Average earnings were up 3.6% in May, up from 3.4% in the previous month and above expectations of 3.1%, and earnings including bonus was up 3.4% in the same month. Adjusted for inflation, weekly earnings were up 1.7% and 1.5% including bonus, which shows that wages managed to grow in May after wage change adjusted for inflation had remained unchanged for 3 months. But the overall data was mixed as the 3-month employment change for the month of May was 28k, well below expectations of 45k, whilst the jobless claims change in the month of June was 38k, a figure much higher than expected, which kept GBP from recovering its pre-announcement losses. But a weaker pound will continue to provide support to UK equities, playing in to the global risk appetite which remains solid, and could provide a boost to UK exports.

Further moves in GBP pairs can be expected as BoE Governor Mark Carney speaks at a panel in Paris at 1200 GMT.

Brexit Uncertainty Continues to Loom

The ongoing Tory leadership change continues to dampen sentiment in the British economy as both candidates seem set to deliver Brexit on October 31, regardless of the terms of the withdrawal. Despite Jeremy Hunt being less stern about his Brexit stance, both him and front-runner Boris Johnson are believed to back a no-deal Brexit if no amendment to the withdrawal agreement with the EU can be reached by the October deadline, which is keeping markets on edge.

The risks Brexit pose to the British economy have been further acknowledged by the BoE as they seem set to change their forward guidance as “a global trade war and a No Deal Brexit remain growing possibilities”. The BoE may abandon their intention to hike rates to adapt their policy to other Central Banks around the globe, which are turning dovish with expectations of rate cuts to come from most them.

Recommended Reading

Eurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor

KEY TRADING RESOURCES:

--- Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst

To contact Daniela, email her at Daniela.Sabin@ig.com

Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.