News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.02% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.06% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.08% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HbXlgqqEG4
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.34%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 63.25%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/RoqYFl8Oue
  • Silver prices plummeted over 8% on Monday, registering their largest single-day swing seen in more than one month. The potential cross over of its 20-Day SMA below 50-Day SMA is likely to form a “Death Cross”, which is a mid-term bearish indicator. https://t.co/N6OHzhZOzR
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:https://t.co/1oygcFMFNs https://t.co/C2rRzTLN03
  • As the clock is ticking on US Presidential Election – an event that is highly important and may carry significant amount of uncertainty. Will you ride the volatility or stay on the sideline until the political skies are cleared in November? https://t.co/5EXpzyXHct
  • Wall Street Futures edged higher at Asia opening hours: Dow Jones (+0.12%) S&P 500 (+0.13%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.13%) [delayed] -BBG
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/wi1qabrtHJ https://t.co/bmOoBpGlZs
  • $AUDUSD dipping in morning APAC trade following a speech from #RBA Governor Guy Debelle He mentioned that an option possibly being considered for other policy prescriptions is to buy bonds 'further out along the curve' (relatively dovish) https://t.co/JXQktfCrj0 https://t.co/Xbyhuuy5b6
  • RBA's Debelle: 'Mixed' empirical evidence on negative rates, TFF increase is substantial easing of monetary policy -BBG #RBA $AUDUSD
  • RBA's Debelle: Lower #AUD would benefit economy, watching closely. FX intervention not effective in current circumstance -BBG $AUDUSD #RBA
AUDUSD Jumps on Chinese GDP, Econ Data - Trade War in Focus

AUDUSD Jumps on Chinese GDP, Econ Data - Trade War in Focus

2019-07-15 02:00:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst
Share:

AUDUSD, CHINA GDP, TRADE WAR, GLOBAL GROWTH – TALKING POINTS

  • AUDUSD jumps on better-than-expected Chinese economic, Q2 GDP data
  • US-China trade talks continue but with no clear indication on path ahead
  • Global economy continues to slow as central banks contemplate rate cuts

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The Australian Dollar jumped after a slew of Chinese economic data came in better-than-expected while the year-on-year GDP report fell in line with expectations, showing a growth rate of 6.2 percent. However, it is worth noting that it was the slowest rate of expansion in almost three decades. Markets appeared to have shrugged this factor off and shifted their attention to impressive industrial production and retail sales data.

AUDUSD Reaction to China GDP, Economic Data

Chart Showing AUDUSD.

For over almost a year, economic data coming out of China has been underperforming relative to economists’ expectations. The fact that the majority of the publications beat forecasts signals a significant deviation from the broader trend. However, traders should not be too eager to celebrate – the fundamental outlook suggests slower growth ahead.

Earlier this month, the RBA cut its benchmark rate for a second time this year amid growing downside risks and slower growth out of Australia’s biggest trading partner: China. The central bank cut the OCR to a record low of 1.00 percent in an effort to boost inflation and job creation. However, it is unclear how much this will help lift the export-sensitive country that is facing a progressively slower and more fragile global economy.

Central banks all over the world have halted or completely reversed their tightening intentions. Fed rhetoric shifted from hawkish in 2018 to now dovish with the ECB considering implementing rate cuts and reintroducing quantitative easing if the economic conditions warrant it. The only central bank in the developed world that deviates from this trend is the Norges Bank, though they too may succumb to the pressure of their peers.

Will a US-China Trade War Resolution be Enough to Reverse a Global Slowdown?

Chart Showing Outlook For Global Economy in 2019

Despite the US and China reaching a trade truce shortly after the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, it remains to be seen whether both sides can reconcile what might be fundamental differences. The issue of intellectual property is a major sticking point. Furthermore, political tensions between Washington and Beijing may escalate after the latter threatened to impose sanctions against US firms that sell military equipment to Taiwan.

Learn more about US-China trade war risks here!

Looking ahead, monitoring this peripheral risk may be prudent in case it becomes a force which threatens to derail US-China trade talks. Immediate event risk this week includes a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, the publication of Australian employment data and the US University of Michigan Sentiment index. Watching these risks will be key because of the impact they may have on sentiment-linked assets like AUD.

AUDUSD TRADING RESOURCES

--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES