News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 6:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here:
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EDT on DailyFX!
  • EUR/USD fell sharply last week and there are few signs yet that the selling is over. However, a bounce is likely before the decline resumes. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The week ahead has many systemic issues that take control of the markets, but scheduled data is heavily skewed to the Dollar. Here is my video for the week ahead:
  • GBP turbulence persists as investors eye the next round of EU-UK Brexit negotiations. Cautious optimism signals a deal is near. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • The AB=CD pattern is simple once you know how to spot it and draw the proper Fibonacci retracements. Make your trading strategy as simple as ABCD here:
  • BoE’s Tenreyro says evidence on negative rates are “encouraging” Meanwhile, STOXX Europe Banks Index resides at all time lows
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • Anti-fiat #gold prices suffered the worst week since August as the US Dollar gained ground. Will losses extend? All eyes turn to fiscal stimulus hopes and non-farm payrolls data. Get your #metals update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
US Dollar Price Outlook Still Positive as Markets Wait for Powell Testimony

US Dollar Price Outlook Still Positive as Markets Wait for Powell Testimony

2019-07-10 11:10:00
Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst

USD price, news and analysis:

  • Jerome Powell, who chairs the US Federal Reserve, will give his semi-annual testimony to Congress today and tomorrow.
  • He will likely strengthen forecasts of a quarter-point US rate cut at the end of this month but could also dampen expectations of more rate reductions to follow soon.
  • That would be another positive signal for US Dollar bulls.

US Dollar price outlook constructive

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual testimony to Congress today and tomorrow, beginning with an appearance before the House Financial Services Committee and ending with a further appearance before the Senate Banking Committee.

He is most unlikely to dampen speculation of a 25 basis points reduction in US interest rates to the 2.00%-2.25% range from the current 2.25%-2.50% when the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee ends its next meeting on July 31. Market pricing currently puts the chances of such a cut at 94.5%.

However, for the US Dollar, the key question is whether Powell hints at more rate reductions to come or leans towards a pause before they are cut again. For the moment at least, the latter looks more likely and that would support the Greenback and potentially prompt a further advance after its recent gains.

USD Index Price Chart, Hourly Timeframe (June 25 – July 10, 2019)

Latest US Dollar price chart.

Chart by IG (You can click on it for a larger image)

As I reported here yesterday, bullish factors are beginning to build for the USD. In particular, US and Chinese trade officials held a “constructive” phone conversation yesterday, according to White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow. Moreover, yields on US Treasury notes and bonds look to be rising again.

Cautious traders should perhaps wait for the release today, after Powell speaks, of the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 19 for further clues on the Federal Reserve’s current thinking but both fundamentally and technically the USD looks well placed to make further gains.

Click this link to find out how gold could respond to Powell’s testimony

And click here for longer-term forecasts for the USD and other currencies

Resources to help you trade the forex markets:

Whether you are a new or an experienced trader, at DailyFX we have many resources to help you:

--- Written by Martin Essex, Analyst and Editor

Feel free to contact me via the comments section below, via email at or on Twitter @MartinSEssex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.